Best
Picture
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
The
Fabelmans
The
Banshees of Inisherin
Top
Gun: Maverick
TAR
Elvis
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar:
The Way of Water
The
Whale
Triangle
of Sadness
Alternates
– Women Talking, Babylon
I
feel fairly confident in eight
of these picks. The biggest question mark for me is Women
Talking
which has rarely showed up in precursor awards.
And hasn't even opened up wide yet (at least not near me). Therefore
I'm going with The
Whale
which is a little film with a Best Actor frontrunner; and an English
language epic comedic
satire directed by a foreigner, Triangle
of Sadness.
I still think something like Babylon
or Glass
Onion
could make it in but at this point feels doubtful.
Best
Director
Steven
Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Daniel
Scheinert and Daniel Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd
Field, TAR
Martin
McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Edward
Berger. All Quiet on the Western Front
Alternates:
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis; James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
I
think 4 of the 5 DGA noms make it in, with the Academy favoring more
artistic or foreign films (sorry Joseph Kosinski) which is why
someone like Edward Berger, Park Chan-wook, or the Triangle of
Sadness guy feel possible. I'm going with Berger. I’m also not
counting out notoriously snubbed Baz Luhrmann. People really
seem to like that film.
Best
Actress
Cate
Blanchett, TAR
Michelle
Yeoh. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Danielle
Deadwyler, Till
Viola
Davis, The Woman King
Michelle
Williams, The Fabelmans
Alternates:
Andrea
Riseborough, To Leslie; Ana
de
Armas, Blonde
I
actually do think we're all overthinking this race and Michelle
Williams gets in - despite her SAG snub - but I am
putting Andrea Riseborough
on my Gold Derby predictions because
I
have her at
100 - 1 odds and that would be awesome if it
actually happened.
Best
Actor
Colin
Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin
Butler, Elvis
Brendan
Fraser, The Whale
Bill
Nighy, Living
Paul
Mescal, Aftersun
Alternates:
I guess Tom Cruise??
Basically
every category has 4 practical locks and an open 5th slot. I'd say
Paul Mescal in a small film that has a lot of support (especially
among foreign voters) feels inevitable. I still don't buy Tom Cruise
getting in for basically playing Tom Cruise even though he's great in
the film. I feels so unlike the Academy. I
honestly don’t even know who makes it in, if not these five. The
possibilities of Felix Kammerer, Jeremy Pope, and Hugh Jackman have
been tossed around but I don’t seem them coming to fruition.
Best
Supporting Actress
Kerry
Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie
Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie
Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Angela
Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong
Chau, The Whale
Alternates:
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
This
race is giving me palpitations. I'm going with the two All
At Once
girls, Kerry, Angela (who is the frontrunner apparently??)
and Hong Chau who gave two
great performances (the
other is The Menu)
and her film is very likely a potential BP nominee. But
so is Dolly De Leon. I still think Michelle Williams could show up
here throwing this race into complete turmoil.
Best
Supporting Actor
Ke
Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan
Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul
Dano, The Fabelmans
Barry
Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Eddie
Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Alternates:
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Judd
Hirsch is in like one scene and he's fine I guess? I've never even
heard of The Good Nurse but everyone is predicting him. And they
obviously love this Best Actor winner who was nominated twice in a
row. But maybe The Fabelman guys cross each other out and we get some
kind of wild surprise...
Best
Adapted Screenplay
Women
Talking
The
Whale
Glass
Onion
All
Quiet on the Western Front
She
Said
Alternate
- Living
It
feels weird that She
Said
- an Oscar friendly flick that feels ripe
for a total snub isn't
more of a sure thing but if it gets nominated anywhere it's probably
here. But that slot could easily go to Living
or even Pinocchio.
Best
Original Screenplay
The
Banshees of Inisherin
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
TAR
Triangle
of Sadness
The
Fabelmans
Alternates- Aftersun; Babylon
For
some reason I have some weird feeling that there's going to be a
surprising omission here like Stevie getting snubbed. Do the
screenwriters
really see him as a writer? Of course Tony Kushner is his
co-writer so I
could just be crazy. I
really don’t know what the alternates are if not these five besides
Aftersun
so there ya go.
Best
Cinematography
Top
Gun: Maverick
Avatar:
The Way of Water
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Empire
of Light
Elvis
Alternates- The Batman, The Fabelmans
This
feels like the only place to really reward Empire of Light and is
Roger Deakins after all. For some reason there can only be so many
"movies are magical" movies in this category so I'm going
with the flashy Elvis over The Fabelmans -though I
wouldn’t entirely be surprised to see Avatar snubbed here even
though the first film won this category.
Best
Costume Design
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Babylon
The
Woman King
Mrs.
Harris Goes to Paris
Alternates:
Everything Everywhere All At Once; Corsage
I
still think EEAAO has some pretty cool costumes so I'd be bummed if
it doesn't make it but I guess Mrs Harris Goes to Paris will be that
random movie that gets nominated here and nowhere else.
Best
Film Editing
Top
Gun: Maverick
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
The
Fabelmans
Elvis
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Alternates:
The Banshees of Inisherin; Avatar: The Way of Water
These
feel right to me. Banshees could get in but I have no idea who would
miss.
Best
Makeup and Hairstyling
The
Whale
Elvis
The
Batman
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Alternates:
Babylon; Blonde
I
guess something
like Blonde
or Babylon
or even
Crimes
of the Future
could
get
in, which would make sense for a branch that very much likes to do
its
own thing.
Best
Production Design
Babylon
Elvis
Avatar:
The Way of Water
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
The
Fabelmans
Alternates:
All Quiet on the Western Front; Glass Onion
The
fifth slot is The Fabelmans vs All Quiet on the Western
Front. But sometimes we get an out of left field pick here ala
Passengers. I could see something like Glass Onion getting in
but there aren’t many super wild creative choices this year.
Best
Score
The
Fabelmans
Women
Talking
Babylon
The
Banshees of Inisherin
Guillermo
del Toro's Pinocchio
Alternates
– Nope; All Quiet on the Western Front
Black
Panther won this award a few years ago and it's possible it gets
in again but I'm betting on these five led by previous winners John
Williams, Hildur Guðnadóttir, Justin Hurwitz, Alexandre Desplat and
previous nominee Carter Burwell. I'm hoping for a surprise by Nope
here but I'm not holding my breath.
Best
Song
Top
Gun: Maverick, Hold My Hand
RRR,
Naatu Naatu
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever, Lift Me Up
Tell
It Like a Woman, Applause
Till,
Stand Up
Alternates:
Ciao Papa , Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio; Where the Crawdads Sing,
Carolina
One
of the hardest categories to predict even with a shortlist. RRR, Top
Gun, and Black Panther feel like locks but who knows! All I know is
I’m not betting against perennial nominee Diane Warren.
Best
Sound
Top
Gun: Maverick
Avatar:
The Way of Water
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Everything
Everywhere All at Once
Alternates
- Babylon, The Batman
This
category has gotten way more competitive since the two sound
categories merged a couple years ago and is now usually dominated by
Best Pic noms.
Best
Visual Effects
Avatar:
The Way of Water
Top
Gun: Maverick
The
Batman
Black
Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor
Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Alternates
– All Quiet on the Western Front; Thirteen Lives
This
category could potentially be made up entirely of sequels and
franchise films. Which is why it wouldn't be too crazy to see a
surprise or two here like Thirteen Lives or Nope which
would be my personal pick. Even though I've heard branch members were
impressed with JW:D it seems weird they'd start nominating this
reboot franchise with the worst entry to date.
Best
Animated Feature
Guillermo
del Toro's Pinocchio
Turning
Red
Marcel
the Shell with Shoes On
Wendell
and Wild
My
Father’s Dragon
Alternates-
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish; Strange World
The
animation branch is finicky. There
is always a beloved popular movie that gets snubbed here which is why
I'm calling
a
Puss in Boots snub
and going with the more artistic My Father's Dragon from the people
who gave us the Oscar nominated The Secret of Kells. But
I am in no way confident.
Best
Documentary Feature
All
the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All
That Breathes
Fire
of Love
Navalny
Descendant
Alternate
- Moonage Daydream
Best
International Film
All
Quiet on the Western Front
Decision
to Leave
Close
Argentina,
1985
EO
Alternate
– The Quiet Girl
I'm
going with the one with the donkey for the fifth slot.
Best
Animated Short
The
Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
New
Moon
My
Year of Dicks
Save
Ralph
The
Flying Sailor
Best
Documentary Short
The
Flagmakers
The
Elephant Whisperers
38
at the Garden
How
Do You Measure a Year?
Nuisance
Bear
Best
Live Action Short
Le
Pupille
An
Irish Goodbye
The
Red Suitcase
Warsha
Nakam
