Oscar Forecast 2011: “The King’s Speech” with a Chance of Facebook

UPDATED - The Oscars are over already?? In the words of Melissa Leo: "F***!" Well what do you know the Academy wasn't as into The King's Speech as most people thought. So you all need to chill alright. Inception ended up winning just as many awards as "Speech" with four wins apeice. And who knew that Inception would (deservedly) take home Best Cinematography? (Poor Roger Deakins!) And even though The King's Speech was a British period piece, it followed the same exact winning pattern as recent gritty flicks like Million Dollar Baby, The Departed, and No Country For Old Men who all won 4 big Oscars and no technical honors. I'm glad Christian Bale finally has an Oscar and thank godness The Social Network won its most deserved win: Original Score. I'm saddened the Academy couldn't find a place to reward 127 Hours, but that's ok. They couldn't even find room to honor True Grit, which turned out to be this year's Gangs of New York with 10 losses. Ouch. Overall it was an entertaining show and James and Anne did good as first time hosts. I'm sure they'll be criticized in the morning (ie "well they're no Bob Hope or Billy Crystal" But who is anyways?) but they should be proud of their performances. I did decently with my predictions, with a total of 18 out of 24 correct categories. Only 364 days til next year's Oscars.... can't wait! Winners are below in BOLD

In less than 127 hours, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the winners of the 83rd Annual Academy Awards. It’s been a long awards season but the big night is finally here! I think it’s been a pretty decent year for movies, there are some really great achievements out there. (What? No nominations for Piranha 3D?? It’s a Weinstein film for crying out loud!) This is a year in which I actually at least liked all of the Best Picture nominees and there have been years where I’ve only liked two or three. This is the second year of the Academy’s controversial decision to expand the Best Picture race to 10 nominees and while it’s great to see movies like 127 Hours and Toy Story 3 nominated for Best Picture, let’s be frank: they have ZERO chance of actually taking the top prize. I’m pretty confident that if there were only five nominees they would be The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Fighter, True Grit and probably Black Swan (with a possibility of The Kids Are All Right). And even with five nominees it would still come down to a battle between a nerdy computer guy and a stuttering monarch. So will the Academy friend The Social Network or will they crown The King’s Speech? Without further ado I present my fearless predictions for the 2011 Academy Awards…

Best Picture
WhatWill Win: The King’s Speech. Do I really need to tell you this? Sure The Social Network seemed like a foregone conclusion a few months ago, but the tides certainly changed over there in crazy Hollywood. With the Weinsteins backing your film about a king with a speech impediment you might as well have given them the Oscar during pre-production. I guess there’s still a remote possibility that The Social Network could win, but I doubt it. The King’s Speech has SAG, PGA and DGA awards to back up it’s claim as the frontrunner.
What Should Win: 127 Hours. Hands down the best movie of the year. Emotionally raw, unnerving, majestic yet intimate, disturbing. Everything you want in a well-made film. Audacious filmmaking for sure.
Should Have Been Nominated: The Town

Best Director
Will Win: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech. Finally we have a race! Hooper could easily loose here to David Fincher, who seems to be this year’s “veteran” who hasn’t yet won. Hooper has history on his side since he picked up the DGA award and his film is the frontrunner for BP. But a split is definitely possible, and I wouldn’t be surprised or shocked to hear Fincher’s name called. I just think the Academy loves The King’s Speech and what’s a best picture without a best director?
Should Win: David O. Russell, The Fighter. I loved The Fighter and I think a lot of its success is due to Russell’s great direction. He directed his actors wonderfully and they all delivered (with three of them being Oscar-nominated). But if I really had my pick I would vote for…
Should Have Been Nominated: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Best Actor
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech. Like last year’s “race,” yawn. You don't need a pre-cog to see this one coming.
Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours. This movie is practically a one man show. And he didn’t even talk to a volleyball! Franco’s performance is wonderful and even though he doesn’t stutter once, you are completely drawn into his strange and brutally intense predicament.
Should Have Been Nominated: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Best Actress
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. She gave a great performance, she’s “young and hot,” and she prepared for the role for about a year. Just give it to her already. Poor Annette Bening, even with Hilary Swank not even nominated she’s still being sidelined by the hot young thing. There’s a chance she could still pull it off: Black Swan didn’t get nearly as many nominations as most people predicted (not even for screenplay) which could possibly expose the film’s potential weakness.
Should Win: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right. Look I love both of these performances and since Bening was robbed for American Beauty, she deserves a little naked golden man.
Should Have Been Nominated: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter. He gave another great performance, but finally in a movie that Academy likes. I’m worried that love of The King’s Speech could give Rush the edge here, but I’m still thinking Bale pulls it off. I don’t think the others even have a shot.
Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter. In any year any of these five actors could win for their performances here. This was a great year for supporting performances. But Bale just sticks out here with such a juicy role which is actually the most entertaining plot line of the film. He’s a scene stealer and that’s a great supporting performance
Should Have Been Nominated: Sam Rockwell, Conviction

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter. This is also going to be a close race. Leo has most of the precursor awards but a possible vote split with her Fighter co-star Amy Adams could hurt, which could lead to a victory by the young Hailee Steinfeld (or even in a King’s Speech sweep Carter). Leo is the safest bet, but literally anything can happen in this category. Anything.
Should Win: Amy Adams, The Fighter. I love both the supporting actresses in The Fighter, but I’ve been an Adams fan longer. She should have won for Junebug, and a win here would correct that. And to think she wasn’t even nominated for Enchanted. For shame, Academy!
Should Have Been Nominated: Mila Kunis, Black Swan

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The King’s Speech

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Social Network

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Inside Job

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Strangers No More

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
In a Better World (Denmark)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Toy Story 3

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Day & Night (The Lost Thing)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Na Wewe (God of Love)

BEST ART DIRECTION
The King’s Speech (Alice in Wonderland)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
True Grit (Inception)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The King’s Speech (Alice in Wonderland)

BEST EDITING
The Social Network

BEST MAKEUP
The Wolfman

BEST SCORE
The King’s Speech (The Social Network)

BEST SONG
“We Belong Together,” Toy Story 3

BEST SOUND EDITING
Inception

BEST SOUND MIXING
Inception

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Inception

If I Had an Oscar Ballot...

It’s every movie freak’s dream to be able to vote for the Oscars (or am I alone here?) But a fan can dream right? So here would be my picks if I had an Oscar ballot in front of me:

Ranking of Best Picture
With 10 nominees for best picture, Academy members are actually required to rank all the films from their favorite to least favorite. They use a preferential voting system to find a winner, which is way too complicated to explain here, but I understand the general gist of it. At the end of the day each member will end up casting only one vote for one movie, but it may not necessarily be the top movie on their ballot. Here are my rankings:

BEST PICTURE
1 - 127 Hours
The Fighter
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone
True Grit
The King’s Speech
10 - The Social Network

This year, I actually enjoyed all ten best picture nominees. (Although I’d prefer to have The Town in there somewhere). I didn’t dislike any of the movies, and although I have The Social Network ranked last, it’s not a horrible movie by any stretch of the imagination, it’s just that, I wouldn’t want my ballot being unexpectedly cast for that film. 127 Hours was hands down my favorite film of the year.

And the rest… my picks are italicized…

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter

I loved David O. Russell’s work on The Fighter, it’s quite understated and it’s not as flashy a job as let’s say Black Swan, although Darren Aronofksy is pretty close second here. I would vote for David Fincher just because I’d want him to win an Oscar, but to be frank if he was going to win, he should have won for Seven, Fight Club, Panic Room, Zodiac or Benjamin Button over The Social Network.

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

James Franco’s performance is the default winner here just because of the level of difficulty. He spends the entire film pined to a wall and yet he’s so compelling, likable and heart-wrenching the man deserves more than he’s been given so far this award season.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Who doesn’t love Christina Bale, but here we have a chance to vote for not only a great actor who’s shockingly never been nominated, but actually rewarding him for literally his best performance to date. Although I do love Renner and Ruffalo, and even Rush was great but he’s won before. Hawkes’ nomination is his reward.


BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

This is a tough call. I would hate voting for someone as a make-up vote for not winning previously, but I can’t help myself here. Bening was so great in American Beauty and Hilary Swank had to swipe it from her (twice). It’s really impossible to compare Bening and Portman’s performances but they were but equally great. Bening has the edge.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Same thing here with Adams and Leo. They were both awesome in The Fighter, but in the end I have to give Adams the edge because she lost out on her magnificent performance in Junebug (and she wasn’t even nominated for Enchanted).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

I think it’s possible that some Academy members will vote for Inception here simply because Christopher Nolan was snubbed because the Director’s Branch made a big mistake (yet again). However it deserves to win simply on the account that it’s not only the MOST original script of the year, it’s also the most fascinating, complex and memorable. Although I’m glad The Kids Are All Right and The Fighter are nominees.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

127 Hours just simply shines amongst all of these worthy nominees. I wish The Town was competing but you can’t have everything. On a side note, the book that was adapted into the Social Network, The Accidental Billionaires, is a great read and might even be more fascinating than the movie itself.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

I haven’t seen this category’s annual “foreign and or weird/arty” nominee The Illusionist, but I imagine I wouldn’t like it as much as Toy Story 3 or How to Train Your Dragon. In a way I almost want to vote for Dragon simply because Pixar dominates this category way too often and Cars didn’t even win, for shame!

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

I’m admitting right now that I haven’t even seen ANY of these movies. But I plan on watching Exit Through the Gift Shop at some point, so it gets my vote simply to see what would happen if Banksy actually became an Oscar winner.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Outside the Law (Algeria)
Incendies (Canada)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Dogtooth (Greece)
Biutiful (Mexico)

The only one of these film I’ve seen this year is Dogtooth, so technically I wouldn’t even be allowed to vote according to Academy’s rules, but since this is pure fantasy, I will give my vote to what is probably one of the strangest films nominated this year. A film full of incest, shocking violence and bizarre behavior that certainly has zero chances of actually winning. Oh those Greeks!

BEST ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Happy Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Tim Burton films tend to get recognized a lot in this category and that’s completely justified. Alice in Wonderland wasn’t exactly my favorite of his films and although the production design was great, the jaw-dropping scenery in Inception gets my vote here.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

I’m not completely excited about any of the nominees this year. Nothing will beat 2007 as THE year for outstanding cinematography. Don’t believe me, go look it up and tell me that not every one of those films looks simply scrumdiddlyumptious. I still can’t believe Roger Deakins doesn’t have an Oscar, so he definitely gets my vote. And there are some beautiful shots in True Grit to be sure.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Alice in Wonderland is full of bright colors and some rather eye-popping wardrobes.

BEST EDITING
127 Hours, Jon Harris
Black Swan, Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter, Pamela Martin
The King’s Speech, Tariq Anwar
The Social Network, Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

I’m not sure I can’t still wrap my head around the fact that Inception is not one of the five best edited movies of the year. I expected it to win and it’s not even nominated! So then I must default to my favorite film of the year (because editing and picture sort of go hand in hand) and it actually features some great editing.

BEST MAKEUP
Barney’s Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

I would love it if The Wolf man actually won because it would be first flat-out horror film to win this category since 1992 (Bram Stoker’s Dracula). Rick Baker is one of Hollywood’s greatest icons having won plenty of times before and certainly deserves another. The work in The Way Back is memorable if not completely flashy.

BEST SCORE
127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

My one vote for The Social Network is proudly cast here with its innovative and completely wonderful sounding score. This is a great slate of films this year, with Inception or How to Train Your Dragon easily getting my vote in another other year.

BEST SONG
“Coming Home,” Country Strong
“I See the Light,” Tangled
“If I Rise,” 127 Hours
“We Belong Together,” Toy Story 3

This category is pretty weak this year; all of the songs are kind of just ehh. Having said that, I’d love to see Alan Menken and a Disney ‘toon win again. Menken, who used to dominate this category hasn’t won since 1995 (for Pocahontas).

BEST SOUND EDITING
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

The sound categories usually go with the loudest movie and since the loudest movie is also one of the best Inception is an easy choice. Although I’d love to cast a vote for Unstoppable here. Rememebr this category is essentially "best sound effects" so either film would be a viable option.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Inception
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Inception’s sound like is visuals are simply dazzling. The mix of score and sound is wondrous. This movie deserves to win just for those loud BURRNNNNNN sounds alone.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

No other movie made audience’s jaws drop like Inception. There are so many cool visual tricks here it’s hard to vote for anything else. Although so many of the trickery weren’t even computer-generated, which is cool, so for shear number of wacky CGI visuals Alice in Wonderland isn’t a shabby choice either.

She’s a Maniac, Maniac! “The Roommate” is Mostly Devoid of Chills, but Heavy on Trashy Fun

“I just wanna be your friend.”

It’s the beginning of February and I’ve just seen a 2011 film. And it’s a the dopey but fun “The Roommate.” Shockingly it was hard to find anyone to accompany to this film and that’s most likely because it’s pretty much garbage. However, it’s entertaining garbage. Sure it’s a complete rip-off of “Single White Female” (a film that isn’t exactly any more esteemed than this flick) and is a breeding ground for every thriller cliché known to man, but it was enjoyable in a turn of your brain sort of way. I was never bored during its 93 minute run and that’s probably because I amuse easily.

Leighton Meester who you all know all the fabulous Blair Waldorf from TV’s “Gossip Girl” plays a psychopath who is supposed to freak out her straight-laced college roommate but she doesn’t really seem to notice until the third act. Sarah Matthews like all of us have been is a college freshman. She enters her dorm room on the campus of the University of Los Angeles with about two bags (riiiight) and doesn’t meet her roommate until the next day when she wakes up with a huge hangover. Her roommate is Rebecca (Meester) who seems like such a sweet normal girl. But she’s not. She’s a bipolar manic depressive whacko! Although Sarah never seems to realize how crazy she is. The two become good friends at first, almost like sisters, but she get jealous easily and won't let anyone stand in the way of their friendship. This includes a slutty girl (Alyson Michalka) and Sarah’s new boyfriend Stephen (Cam Gigandet).

Nothing that happens in “The Roommate” is particularly original, but since this is a psycho-stalker movie in the vein of Fatal Attraction, Single White Female and One Hour Photo, I’m not going to dismiss this movie because let’s face it, it’s not “Casablanca.” Sure in this film they two girls adopt a pet kitty, which ends up in a clothes dryer. In Single White Female, a puppy falls to his death. Here, Rebecca gets the same tattoo that Sarah has and she even poses as her and fools her ex-boyfriend, which is similar to “Female.” This all culminates and a wickedly fun final act catfight that the audience has been waiting for. And say what you want about the film, I actually enjoyed Meester’s performance. It was nice to see her in a different vein from what we’re used to seeing her as every week on TV.

“The Roommate” adds nothing new to cinema and it’s pretty much everything you’ve seen before. It’s the standard PG-13 rated thriller that is made to rip-off unsuspecting teenagers. Sort of like “The Stepfather” last year, which I also enjoyed. If you find yourself a fan of trashy thrillers with hardly any cinematic merit, than “The Roommate” is certainly for you, all others, the art house theater is down the block. GRADE: B