UPDATE: The nominations have finally been revealed, there are certainly some shocks. Anyone who predicted the Directing category correctly must be psychic. Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow were both shockingly snubbed. Amour's Michael Haneke and Beasts of the Southern Wild's Benh Zeitlin replaced them. Haneke was not really as shocking, but no one would have predicted Zeitlin. Argo's best picture chances are zero to slim now. Unless it can pull a Driving Miss Daisy and win without a directing nod (it did get an editing nomination which helps a little). There was a strong showing for Silver Linings Playbook with all four acting categories receiving a nomination. Lincoln dominated as expected, though broke no records, with 12 nominations, with Life of Pi bringing in 11. A stronger showing indeed. I dont know why I doubted the love for that film who's buzz seemed to wain in the last month or so. I'm personally glad Hitchcock, Prometheus, and Ted can now call themselves Oscar-nominated films. I'm also glad Skyfall got five nods, including original score for Thomas Newman who i'm a big fan of. Unfortunately I'll now have to sit through Amour, which I'm not really looking forward to. I did so-so with my predictions. I'm proud that I got all five Editing nominees correct. Many thought SLP wouldn't get that nod but I saw it coming. Even Mirror Mirror for costume design wasn't a guarantee, but has anyone actually SEEN those costumes? I can't imagine Lincoln not winning Best Picture at this point.
The full list of nominations is
HERE.
[from Wednesday]: The nominees for the 8th annual Academy Awards
will be announced on Thursday morning, my second favorite movie-related day of
the year. Here’s the list of the film and actors I think will be announced by
Emma Stone and Seth McFarlane. You’ll notice that Best Art Direction is now
called Best Production Design and the Makeup award is now Makeup &
Hairstyling. Also, the Original Song rules have changed, after last year’s
embarrassing debacle; there will be five nominees. Without further ado here are
my sorta fearless predictions:
Best Picture
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise
Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
(Alternative – Amour)
This is the second year the Academy will see a range of 5 to
10 nominees in the Best Picture category. It remains to be seen how many films
will actually be nominated. I’m thinking there will definitely be nine or even
ten nominees. If last year’s weaker slate of films produced nine nominees
there’s no reason to think that there won’t be just as many nominated this
year. If this was a traditional year
with five nominees I firmly believe they would be Argo, Les Miserables,
Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty. I’m curious as to how
the foreign film Amour fits in, if at all. Traditionally, only really popular
foreign films make it into Best Picture, the last being Crouching Tiger, Hidden
Dragon. Have any people who aren’t Oscar freaks like me even heard of Amour?
Exactly. I’m curious if Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom,
and The Master could make it in, I’m not quite sure about the later. But
anything could happen. I actually wouldn’t be overwhelmingly surprised to find
Skyfall or The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel show up here, but those are definite
long shots for sure. If my predictions hold up Lincoln could be on its way to scoring 14
nominations which would tie it with Titanic and All about Eve for the most
nominations ever. It’s probably more likely it’ll receive 12 or 13. Argo is
poised to get at least 5 or 6, though it could receive more in some craft
categories, which it may need if it’s going to go all the way.
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
(Alt – David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook)
We’ve got a pretty decent race here. All five have been
cited by the DGA, but I’m only pretty confident in four of these choices. Tom
Hooper seemed like a lock for awhile, but then his movie was released and a
flood of backlash ensued. Many complaints people have about the movie seem to
do with his direction of the material. So I find him rather vulnerable. I think
David. O. Russell could easily replace him, but Hooper gets the edge since he
didn’t direct a “comedy.” Michael Haneke for Amour is a possibility since the
Directors Branch is a little more daring than the other branches. If this does
end up as the final five, Affleck would be the lone nominee who hasn’t already
won in this category - though he did win for writing “Good Will Hunting” of
course. A directing category in which all the nominees are previous winners, how
fun is that?
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
(Alt – Joaquin Phoenix, The Master)
Joaquin Phoenix seemed like an obvious choice so long ago.
What happened? The divisive nature of his film I think. I feel pretty confident
in this five, but Cooper is probably the most vulnerable – though with
nominations from the BFCA, Globes, SAG, and even BAFTA a miss here would be an
all-out snub at this point. How cool would it be for Ben Affleck to score a
surprise nod here ala Clint Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby?Also, it's worth noting that no actor or actress has even won an Oscar for a Spielberg movie (though nine have been nominated). If anyone could pull it off surely Day-Lewis could right?
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
(Alt – Emmanuelle Riva, Amour)
I’m still not sold on Amour’s Emmanuelle Riva or Beasts of
the Southern Wild’s QuvenzhanĂ© Wallis making it. If either of them did, they’d
be the oldest and youngest nominees, respectively, in this category ever. I’m
not very confident in Cotillard or Mirren. Either them could easily be left
off, but SAG nominated them, so that’s why I’m going with them. Watts didn’t score a BAFTA nom which worries me a tad,
but I’m sure the Academy will be on her side. It’ll be a battle between former
nominees Chastain and Lawrence for the win.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
(Alt – Javier Bardem, Skyfall)
What a weird category this year. The precursor awards have
been all over the place. I could easily see Christoph Waltz (who is totally a lead by the way) bumping out DiCaprio,
or both of them getting snubbed. Bardem got a SAG nom, but this would be the
first ever acting nod for a James Bond film. Of course, what better way to start
then with one of, if not the, best Bond movies ever? There’s not even a
frontrunner for this category yet. I really think anything can happen here.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
(Alt – Amy Adams, The Master)
Just give it to Hathaway now already. The others will just
be happy to be nominated. Especially if these five ladies get nods, Hathaway
would be the only one who hasn’t already won. Kidman is a sort of a long shot I
know, but SAG nominated her, so why not go all the way? Probably not, but
crazier things have happened. I’m sure Adams
will be the most likely one to replace her – though Smith is not necessarily a
guarantee either.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Silver Linings Playbook
(Alt – Life of Pi)
I’m not sure how Les Miserables and Life of Pi could be Best
Picture nominees without also being Screenplay nominees but it happens more
often than you’d think. The writer’s branch is notorious for throwing out
curveballs in these two categories, often citing nominees no one even thought
would be nominated. Wallflower could happen as many have suggested, but who
knows really?
Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise
Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
(Alt – Looper)
I’m still not certain that Looper has a very good shot at a
nomination here. Joseph Gordon-Levitt films, with the exception of the
ensemble-driven Inception, tend to be strangely snubbed in this category
(remember when everyone was predicting 500 Days of Summer and last year’s
50/50?). Having said that, anything can happen here. The writers tend to throw
in a foreign film (Amour), a quirky comedy (Moonrise Kingdom), a weird movie
that’s just happy to be nominated (The Master), and then the obvious Best
Picture nominees (Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained). There you have it.
Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Painting
Wreck-It Ralph
(Alt – Rise of the Guardians)
Disney could score here with three nominated films. I’m not
quite sold on Rise of the Guardians, or ParaNorman actually, since some artsy
fair tend to get thrown in here. Which is why I’m going with The Painting; a
movie no one, including myself, has ever heard of.
And the rest of the pack:
Documentary Feature
Bully
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
Foreign Language Film
Amour
The Intouchables
No
A Royal Afair
Sister
Best Cinematography
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Life of Pi
The Master
Skyfall
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Best Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Men in Black 3
Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Best Original Song
“Learn Me Right,” Brave
“Pi’s Lullaby,” Life of Pi
“Skyfall,” Skyfall
“Still Alive,” Paul Williams: Still Alive
“Suddenly,” Les Miserables
Best Production Design
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Sound Editing
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Visual Effects
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prometheus