It's
that time of year again. On Tuesday January 22nd
the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce their
nominees for the 91st
Annual Academy Awards. Since this is my version of football season, I
sort of take this stuff seriously, so without further ado I present
my 89%
fearless Oscar nomination predictions. On with the show...
Best Picture
Ah
the superhero movie and Oscar. Such a sordid relationship. The Dark
Knight. Deadpool. Wonder Woman. I firmly believe The Dark Knight was
very close. But that year only had five nominees. Finally, finally, I
do think “Black Panther” will become the first superhero film
nominated for Best Picture. Black Panther has all the requisite nominations. Golden Globes. SAG. "The Dark Knight" couldn't even get those nods. Of course stranger things have happened.
Yet again there will be anywhere between five and ten BP nominees
based on how the votes are tallied. I have a weird feeling there
won’t be more than 8 nominees but who knows. The hardest part
about predicting this category is figuring out the possible lone wolf
– the random nominee that no one really sees coming (like last
year’s “Phantom Thread”). As of this writing I also still don't really know who's likely to win BP. I'm thinking it's a race between "Roma" and "A Star is Born" but let's see what's nominated first.
Here are 10
projected nominees in likelihood of being nominated:
“Roma”
“A
Star is Born”
“Green
Book”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“The
Favourite”
“Black
Panther”
“If
Beale Street Could Talk”
“Vice”
“Bohemian
Rhapsody”
“A
Quiet Place”
Alternates -
“First Man,” “Mary Poppins Returns”
Best Director
Last
year, BP front runner “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’s”
director got snubbed here. There is usually
one or two high
profile snubs
in this category every
year. Sometimes the
directors’ branch likes
to do their own thing. Sometimes they love nominating
actors-turned-directors (ie Mel Gibson, Clint Eastwood) and sometimes
they don’t (ie Ben Affleck). That’s
either a good thing or bad thing for Bradley Cooper (I think he’s
in). It’s worth noting
that since the Best Picture field expanded to 10 possible nominees
only once has a director been nominated in which his film was not
nominated for Best Picture: Bennett Miller for “Foxcatcher.” I’ve
been hearing plenty of buzz for the Polish – and BAFTA nominated –
film “Cold War.” Just saying. But I’m too much of a wimp to
actually predict him.
Projected
nominees:
Bradley
Cooper, “A Star is Born”
Afonso
Cuaron, “Roma”
Peter Farrelly,
“Green Book”
Yorgos Lanthimos,
“The Favourite”
Spike Lee,
“BlacKkKlansman”
Alternates –
Adam McKay, “Vice;” Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Best Actor
I feel pretty
confident in this list, though Washington is easily the most
vulnerable.
Projected
nominees:
Christian Bale,
“Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A
Star is Born”
Rami Malek,
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen,
“Green Book”
John David
Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”
Alternates –
Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed;” Ryan Gosling, “First Man”
Best Actress
How
is Toni Collette not a front runner for “Hereditary”?? It’s
because it’s such a fantastic year for women that so many great
performances are going to unfortunately be left out. I
still don’t quite buy Emily Blunt as much as I love her; she’s
easily the most vulnerable. It could be someone like Julia Roberts or
even first
timer Yalitza
Aparicio who owned “Roma.” I’ll go ahead and throw in Viola
Davis for the underrated “Widows.” That fifth slot could go any
which way.
Projected
nominees:
Emily
Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Glenn
Close, “The Wife”
Olivia
Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady
Gaga, “A Star is Born”
Melissa
McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Alternates –
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma;” Toni Collette, “Hereditary;”
Best Supporting
Actor
In case anyone is actually curious about Black Panther’s Oscar
chances this will be an interesting category to keep an eye on. If
Michael B. Jordan can kick one of these five guys out, then they
REALLY liked that movie. But I just don’t know how actual Academy
members will receive the film. I’m ready to have my heart broken.
Let us not forget it’s been exactly 10 years since “The Dark
Knight” was snubbed for BP. However, this was one of two categories
the film actually won. I think Sam Rockwell could sneak in,
but I’m honestly not sure how well “Vice” is sitting with
voters.
Projected nominees:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Alternates
– Sam Rockwell, “Vice;” Michael B. Jordan, “Black Panther”
Best Supporting
Actress
I’m really not that confident in calling Regina King since she
missed out at SAG and BAFTA. And if I’m being honest I’m not all
that sure why she’s such a standout in “Beale Street” to begin
with. But if not her who else exactly? I guess Nicole Kidman? But
“Boy Erased” seems to have been erased from voters’ minds.
Margot Robbie for the hardly well-received “Mary Queen of Scots?”
I’d love Emily Blunt to show up for “A Quiet Place” but two
nods for her seem like a tall order for someone who has yet to even
receive a nomination (though she could sneak in here and get bumped
from Best Actress).
Projected nominees:
Amy
Adams, “Vice”
Claire
Foy, “First Man”
Regina
King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma
Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel
Weisz, “The Favourite”
Alternate
– Margot Robbie, “Mary Queen of Scots;” Emily Blunt, “A
Quiet Place”
Best Adapted
Screenplay
I’m
really hoping for “Black
Panther” to sneak in here. “Logan”
proved last year that a critically acclaimed
comic book film can get a
writing nomination. And
“Black Panther” has way more overall support than “Logan;”
though, will the Academy
deem “Black Panther” a great feat of writing? Having
said that I think the generally snobby writers will go the indie
route and nominate Debra Granik’s “Leave No Trace” instead (I
mean, it does have 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and
just got a ).
Also, this
may be Spike Lee’s few chances to actually win a competitive Oscar
(he has an honorary one).
Projected
nominees:
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Can
You Ever Forgive Me?”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Leave No Trace”
“A Star is Born”
Alternate -
“First Man;” “Black Panther”
Best Original
Screenplay
Another
category likely to be dominated by Best Picture nominees. But there’s
usually one outlier. It’s usually a quirky comedy or indie drama
I’m betting on Bo Burnham’s realistic approach in “Eighth
Grade” but don’t count out Paul Schrader’s work on “First
Reformed.” I’d love for “A Quiet Place” - an essentially
dialogue-less film - to show up here.
Projected nominees:
“Eighth
Grade”
“The
Favourite”
“Green
Book”
“Roma”
“Vice”
Alternates:
“First Reformed;” “A Quiet Place”
Best
Cinematography
Cinematographer
Rachel Morrison was the first woman nominated in this category last
year for “Mudbound.” She’s also in the running this year for
“Black Panther.” Will she be the only woman nominated twice?
She’s certainly a threat but she’s got a lot of artistic
competition this year.
Projected
nominees:
“Cold
War”
“The
Favourite”
“First
Man”
“Roma”
“A
Star is Born”
Alternates -
“Black Panther;” “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Best Costume
Design
“Black
Panther”
“Fantastic
Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald”
“The
Favourite”
“Mary
Poppins Returns”
“Mary
Queen of Scots”
Alternates -
“Crazy Rich Asians;” “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Best Film Editing
“The
Favourite”
“First
Man”
“Roma”
“A
Star is Born”
“Vice”
Alternates-
“Black Panther;” “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Best Makeup and
Hairstyling
“Black Panther”
“Border”
“Vice”
Alternates -
“Suspiria;” “Stan & Ollie”
Best Original
Score
The
Academy actually released the short list of scores making this a
slightly easier year
to predict by narrowing
the field but it’s still
somewhat of
a crap shoot. I’ve said
it a million times and I’ll say it again: veterans
and former winners generally do very well here but there’s always
one or two newcomers.
Projected
nominees:
“Black
Panther” (Ludwig Goransson)
“First
Man” (Justin Hurwitz)
“If
Beale Street Could Talk” (Nicholas Britell)
“Isle
of Dogs” (Alexandre Desplat)
“Mary
Poppins Returns” (Marc Shaiman)
Alternates - “A
Quiet Place” (Marco Beltrami); “BlacKkKlansman” (Terrance
Blanchard)
Best Original
Song
Another notoriously difficult category to predict. The big question
remains: why the hell isn’t the song Celine Dion sings from
“Deadpool 2” on the short list?? I’m also going with both songs
from “Mary Poppins Returns” because I have no idea which way
they’re gonna go; that leaves Dolly on the outside looking in.
Projected
nominees:
All
the Stars, “Black
Panther”
The
Place Where Lost Things Go, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Trip
a Little Night Fantastic, “Mary
Poppins Returns”
I’ll
Fight,
“RBG”
Shallow,
“A Star is Born”
Alternate-
Girl in the Movies,
“Dumplin’”
Best Production
Design
“Black Panther”
“The Favourite”
“First Man”
“Mary Poppins
Returns”
“Roma”
Alternates -
“Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald;” “A Star is Born”
Best Sound
Editing
“First
Man”
“Mission
Impossible – Fallout”
“Ready
Player One”
“Roma”
“A
Quiet Place”
Alternates -
“Black Panther;” “A Star is Born”
Best Sound Mixing
“Bohemian
Rhapsody”
“First
Man”
“A
Quiet Place”
“Roma”
“A
Star is Born”
Alternates -
“Black Panther;” “Mission Impossible - Fallout”
Best Visual
Effects
“Avengers:
Infinity War”
“Black
Panther”
“Mary
Poppins Returns”
“Ready
Player One”
“Solo:
A Star Wars Story”
Alternates
- “First Man;” “Welcome to Marwen”
Best Animated
Feature Film
Last year this
branch snubbed “The LEGO Batman Movie” does that mean
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” could be left out? It could
happen. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see either sequel “Ralph
Breaks the Internet” or “Incredibles 2” to be shockingly
snubbed. But I’m gonna not bet against any of them. Those three
slots take care of the populist fare, throw in “Isle of Dogs” as
the quirky studio pick and that leaves one artsy foreign film.
Projected
nominees:
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the
Internet”
“Spider-Man Into
the Spider-Verse”
Alternate
- “Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch”
Best Documentary
Feature
“Free
Solo”
“Minding
the Gap”
“RBG”
“Three
Identical Strangers”
“Won’t
You Be My Neighbor”
Alternate -
“Shirkers”
Best Foreign
Language Film
“Burning” (South
Korea)
“Capernaum”
(Lebanon)
“Cold War”
(Poland)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters”
(Japan)
Best Animated
Short
“Bao”
“Bilby”
“Bird Karma”
“One Small Step”
“Weekends”
Best
Documentary Short
“’63 Boycott”
“End Game”
“A Night at the Garden”
“Period.
End of a Sentence.”
“Zion”
Best
Live Action Short
“Caroline”
“Detainment”
“Fauve”
“Marguerite”
“Wale”
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