BEST PICTURE
I’ve been wrong
the last three years in a row and it would be nice if I could get
this right again. It seems like only yesterday I had a seven year
stretch of correctly predicted BP winners (The Departed through
Argo). And then something… funny happened. The Academy’s tastes
began to shift, there was a whiff of change in the air, and they
became - dare I say - unpredictable. I couldn’t even
correctly predict last year’s win for “The Shape of Water”
which actually makes the most sense in hindsight. It makes for an
exciting show but for someone who spends the winter months trying to
decipher which way the Academy will go, it’s anxiety inducing. And
yet again here we are in a wacky year where “the rules” – ie,
SAG noms, “requisite nominations” - that used to be very helpful
- will be thrown out the window yet again. For several years it
seemed like the SAG Best Cast category was the unofficial bellwether
as to what could eventually win the Best Picture Oscar. Gravity, The
Revenant, La La Land – all failed to get a Best Cast nomination at
SAG and all failed to win Best Picture at the Oscars. So how could
The Shape of Water possibly win BP without that same nomination? But
it did! It did win. I maintain that Three Billboard’s lack
of a directing nomination was telling. Sure, Argo pulled it off just
a few years ago but there was a rallying cry behind Ben Affleck’s
snub; no one seemed to care that Marin McDonagh got shafted.
And that is why I am
somewhat hesitantly predicting a win for Roma. A film that was not
nominated at SAG but still
received two somewhat surprising Oscar
acting nods for two of its
actresses. I won’t even get into Roma’s lack of an editing nod –
Birdman didn't
get one and still won. But I think it’s because the Academy
didn’t want to nominate Alfonso Cuaron
literally 8 times. Some are
predicting a victory for “Green Book.” But it’s lack of a
directing nomination is telling, not to mention its
SAG nomination snub. However, with the way the preferential ballot
works
a lot of these “rules” feel more less
and less helpful. A
legitimate argument could be
made for ALL EIGHT BP NOMINEES. That is unprecedented. It was so
much easier when it was The King’s Speech vs The Social Network or
Birdman vs Boyhood or Shakespeare in Love vs. Saving Private Ryan. Ok
bad example. So I’m
officially going with Roma, which just triumphed at BAFTA and its
hard to predict a BP/Director split to I’m sticking with it.
Unfortunately, it seems like A Star is Born is just happy to be
nominated.
Will win: “Roma”
Should win: “A
Star is Born”
Should have been
nominated: “A Quiet Place”
DIRECTING
If the “rules” I
speak of have become less predictive the last few years there’s one
that has truly stayed the course: DGA. This award has a tremendously
predictive history. Alfonso Cuaron won at DGA and is not surprisingly
on his way to claim his second Best Directing Oscar. And that’s
fine and all but what a great opportunity it would have been to
reward Spike Lee (which will probably happy in Screenplay).
Will win: Alfonso
Cuarón, “Roma”
Should win: Spike
Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Should have been
nominated: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
ACTOR IN A
LEADING ROLE
Controversy aside,
I’m pretty certain that Rami Malek is going to take this for
Bohemian Rhapsody. Even people who hate the movie say he’s the best
thing about it. He won the Globe, SAG and BAFTA. It would be an upset
if he lost at this point. Bale or Cooper could win but I’d
be shocked if Malek loses.
Will win: Rami
Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should win: Rami
Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should have been
nominated: John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”
ACTRESS IN A
LEADING ROLE
What a crazy
trajectory the ladies in this category have had. Another young vs
old, newbie vs veteran narrative took shape this year as it became
Gaga vs Glenn. Yes Glenn Close has yet to win an Oscar but does she
really need it for The Wife? It’s a mediocre movie and she’s fine
in it but to think Gaga and Colman will lose a deserving award to a
lifetime achievement honor is just sad (though Gaga is really in
third here considering she’s a lock for a win in the Song
category). At this point after Close’s surprise Globe victory and
powerful speech it’s hers to lose.
Will win: Glenn
Close, “The Wife”
Should win:
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Should have been
nominated: Toni Collette, “Hereditary”
ACTOR IN A
SUPPORTING ROLE
I don’t hate
“Green Book” as much as other people do and Mahershala is fine in
the film. But I don’t quite get the need to give the guy another
Oscar so quickly after winning for Moonlight. A win for Ali feels
like another lock even though this category sometimes ends up
rewarding veterans: your Christopher Plummers, your Alan Arkins, your
George Clooneys, your James Coburns, etc. So a surprise win for Sam
Elliott wouldn’t be the craziest thing to happen.
Will win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Should win: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Should have been nominated: Michael B. Jordan, “Black Panther”
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
What a weird
category this year. Regina King feels like the front runner but she
wasn’t strangely not nominated at SAG and at BAFTA. It’s very
rare for a performer to win an Oscar after being snubbed at SAG but
it has happened twice: Marcia Gay Harden and Christoph Waltz. (Fun
fact: Harden’s never even been nominated at the Golden Globes for
any role). If King doesn’t win it’ll probably go to Rachel
Weisz, who has already won in this category (against Amy Adams I
might add). Adams could win I guess but it feels like no one really
seems to care much about Vice these days. I thought she was fine in
the film and wouldn’t mind her finally winning her first Oscar.
Will win: Regina
King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Should win: Amy
Adams, “Vice”
Should have been
here: Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”
WRITING (ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY)
Even if Spike Lee
isn’t going to win for Directing BlacKkKlansman he’s most likely
to triumph for helping to write BlacKkKlansman. This isn’t quite a
slam-dunk – Can You Ever Forgive Me? surprised many by winning the
WGA – and there’s a lot of affection for If Beale Street Could
Talk and its source material. Having said that, it feels increasingly
difficult for non-BP nominees to win in the screenplay categories
(the last time a non-BP nominee won in this category was 1998’s
Gods & Monsters)
Will win:
“BlacKkKlansman”
Should win:
“BlacKkKlansman”
Should have been
nominated: “Black Panther”
WRITING (ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY)
This category is a
tad more welcoming to non-BP fare (The last time a non-BP nominee won
in the Original Screenplay category was 2004’s Eternal Sunshine of
the Spotless Mind). I think this comes down to Green Book vs The
Favourite. This will be a very important category to watch. If Green
Book wins it could very well win Best Picture. If The
Favourite wins it’s highly unlikely that Green Book will take the
cake. I’m guessing The Favourite since it feels like the most
Original of these nominees and it doesn’t help that one of Green
Book’s screenwriters (Nick Vallelonga) has been in some hot water
recently.
Will win: “The
Favourite”
Should win: “The
Favourite”
Should have been
nominated: “Eighth Grade”
CINEMATOGRAPHY
I’d be surprised
if Alfonso Cuaron doesn’t win for lensing his own film. It’s
certainly unprecedented. The Cinematography guild wasn’t having it
(Cold War won at ASC) but I think the Academy will reward the film
here.
Will win: “Roma”
Should win:
“Roma”
Should have been
nominated: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
COSTUME DESIGN
It’s period vs.
fantasy. Usually it’s dumb to bet against a flashy period piece
drama featuring royals but the costuming in Black Panther is also
gorgeous and unique. Flip a coin really, but I think The Favourite
will probably win out. And if Black Panther surprises with a win I’ll
be happy to be wrong.
Will win: “The
Favourite”
Should win:
“Black Panther”
Should have been
nominated: “Crazy Rich Asians”
FILM EDITING
Another bizarre
category filled with nontraditional nominees. Where’s the random
action movie? Where’s the war film? There’s nothing too flashy or
obvious about any of these nominees; they’re all fine. I think
Vice, which won at BAFTA, will probably win because it arguably has
the “flashiest” editing of the nominees, with lots of insert
cross-cutting scenes. Bohemian Rhapsody could win here as music films
tend to do well in this category and everyone knows that the troubled
production of this film was truly saved in the editing room. So don’t
be shocked if Bohemian Rhapsody pulls it off.
Will win: “Vice”
Should win:
“Vice”
Should have been
nominated: “A Star is Born”
MAKEUP AND
HAIRSTYLING
Vice will probably
win for transforming Christian Bale into Dick Chaney. The academy
loves a good transformation (there’s a reason why films like The
Iron Lady, Darkest Hour, La Vie en Rose have won here). Anyone who
looks at stills from Border would be impressed with that work but
have enough people seen the film or even know of it?
Will win: “Vice”
Should win:
“Vice”
Should have been
nominated: “Black Panther”
MUSIC (ORIGINAL
SCORE)
With “First Man’s”
gorgeous score shockingly left out, this race literally comes down to
race: the three front runners feature predominately African American
casts: If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, and Black Panther.
I think Beale Street will take it but wouldn’t be shocked to see
any of these three win.
Will win: “If
Beale Street Could Talk”
Should win:
“Black Panther”
Should have been
nominated: “First Man”
MUSIC (ORIGINAL
SONG)
The only real sure
thing of the night besides Best Director. Lady Gaga, half way to her
EGOT.
Will win:
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
Should win:
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
Should have been
nominated: “Ashes” from “Deadpool 2”
PRODUCTION DESIGN
A lot of times this
award is tied closely to Costume Design. So this is another battle
between Art Directors Guild winners & front runners Black Panther
and The Favourite. The Academy has been known to embrace worlds
created with the help of computers so a win for Black Panther
wouldn’t be unheard of, but I won’t be surprised if The Favourite
wins this if they also win for Costumes. Flip a coin.
Will win: “The
Favourite”
Should win:
“Black Panther”
Should have been
nominated: “Ready Player One”
SOUND EDITING
This category isn’t
very welcoming to non-BP nominees as I’ve recently come to find
out. Skyfall won in 2013 but it tied with Zero Dark Thirty. But
there’s a reason A Quiet Place was nominated for this award. It’s
the film most reliant on sound effects. However, it’s not just
sound people voting so I wouldn’t be shocked if something else, like Bohemian Rhapsody takes this one. I’m totally going out on a limb here.
Will win: “A
Quiet Place”
Should win: “A
Quiet Place”
Should have been
nominated: “Ready Player One”
SOUND MIXING
I think it’s a
race between the two music-based films. Flip a coin, but don’t
count out First Man.
Will win:
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should win:
“First Man”
Should have been
nominated: “Mission: Impossible – Fallout”
VISUAL EFFECTS
Generally, in this
category Best Picture winners tend to win. Of course “Ex Machina”
beat several BP nominees that year. Usually the movie that wins is
the film most likely to be a BP nominee, ie “Blade Runner
2049” and “Interstellar.” That film this year would be “First
Man” (it’s also the only film of the five with multiple
nominations) but the film’s effects are more subtle so I think the
Academy will finally embrace the Marvel Cinematic Universe with a win
for the effects-heavy Avengers. Though they really should be
rewarding “Ready Player One” which has some of the most
impressive full sequences of CGI since “Avatar.” (It’s also
crazy that no Spielberg film has won this award since 1993’s
“Jurassic Park.”)
Will win:
“Avengers: Infinity War”
Should win:
“Ready Player One”
Should have been
here: “Black Panther”
ANIMATED FEATURE
FILM
It’s rare for a
non-Disney or non-Pixar film to win here, but I think considering the
Disney films are sequels don’t really help their cause. Sure “Toy
Story 3” pulled it off, but that was a Best Picture nominee. I
think “Spider-Man” will prevail since it has been winning every
other top animation award but don’t be too shocked if there’s an
upset. Remember when “Brave” beat out “Wreck-It Ralph?” That
still hurts.
Will win:
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Should win:
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Should of been
nominated: They actually got this category right this year
FOREIGN LANGUAGE
FILM
How does a film in
this category that is also a BP nominee not win here? There is
some consensus that those voting for Roma for BP would be hesitant to
also vote for it here but that’s nonsense. Having said that, a
surprise win for “Cold War” wouldn’t be the craziest of upsets.
Will win: “Roma”
(Mexico)
Should win:
“Roma” (Mexico)
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
A win for RBG would be rightfully politically motivated which I have
no problem with and Ruth Bader Ginsburg has literally been everywhere
lately (mostly in the hospital recovering actually but she’s a
tough old broad). Having said that, the film itself while completely
enjoyable isn’t necessary a feat of magnificent non-fiction
filmmaking. That would be Free Solo, a big scale, nail-biter of a
film about a man who attempts to climb Yosemite’s 3,000 ft El
Capitan Wall without any ropes or safety gear. Either film has a
decent shot.
Will win: “Free
Solo”
Should win: “Free
Solo”
Should have been
here: “Three Identical Strangers”
DOCUMENTARY
(SHORT SUBJECT)
Will win:
“Period. End of Sentence.”
SHORT FILM
(ANIMATED)
Will win: “Bao”
SHORT FILM (LIVE
ACTION)
Will win:
“Marguerite”
2 comments:
Who and what determines nominees?
Also, Redbox is having a fun, little contest you should join. Not for the free movies, but it's fun to vote, print out your ballot and monitor points toward free rentals. Fun anyway for a dork like me. More fun as a group, of course.
The Academy is an organization of about 6,000 film professionals....like cinematographers, sound designers, costume designers, screenwriters, actors, directors, producers, publicists, etc. A select number of members are invited each year, the past few years they've been trying to diversify and add more women and people of color. The group has historically skewed white and male since its inception and they're trying to fix that. Also, once you're a member you're one for life, so a majority of the members are old people who worked in the industry decades ago, which is why sometimes you get more conservative, "traditional" types of films nominated. That's why a movie like Black Panther being nominated is such a big deal. Nominees are determined by peer groups. So writers nominate writers, actors nominate actors, etc. But once the nominees are determined everyone gets to vote for all categories. [end of nerdgasm]
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