It's that time of
year again. On Monday January 13th the Academy of Motion
Picture Arts and Sciences will announce their nominees for the 92nd
annual Academy Awards. Since this is my version of football season, I
sort of take this stuff seriously, so without further ado I present
my 87% fearless Oscar nomination predictions. On with the show...
Best
Picture
It’s
a pretty strong year for film and I wouldn’t be surprised to see as
many as 9 nominees (for the record, there has never been a list of 10
nominees
since
the Academy changed its rules to allow for
between 5-10 nominees). I think the first 7 on here are basically
locks. I’d be shocked to see one of them miss. Beyond that it’s
really a guessing game. I think Ford v Ferrari has a really solid
shot as does Little Women. The Farewell is a little tiny movie and
films like that tend to break through when they have a small but
passionate fan base. Plus,
the Academy’s membership is more diverse and international than
ever before. (But still predominately white and male). What
are the other possibilities you ask?
The
Two Popes, Knives Out, Bombshell… I wouldn’t be TOO surprised to
see any of those make it in. In
the last few years there haven’t been any absolute shock nominees
in this category. It’s just must harder to predict the actual
winner…
Here are my projected nominees in order of likelihood of being
nominated:
“The Irishman”
“Once Upon a Time
in Hollywood”
“Parasite”
“1917”
“Marriage Story”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Little Women”
“The Farewell”
alternates –
Knives Out, The Two Popes, Bombshell
Best Director
People
have been underestimating Taika Waititi for far too long. He recently
got in at the DGA, and I’m all like, duh. I’ve been saying for
the longest time: since Jojo Rabbit won the coveted Audience prize
at TIFF, it
would surprise everyone and probably
win
Best Picture. It’s about WWII, is heartfelt, is relevant to today,
and has a strong ensemble cast. If that doesn’t scream best picture
I don’t know what does. So I think Waititi will sneak in here… if
he doesn’t that fifth slot could easily go to Noah Baumbach, Greta
Gerwig, or Todd Phillips. My
predicted five is the same lineup as DGA which rarely is a perfect
match so one is bound to get bumped.
projected nominees:
Bong Joon Ho
“Parasite”
Sam Mendes “1917”
Martin Scorsese “The
Irishman”
Quentin Tarantino
(“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Taika Waititi “Jojo
Rabbit”
alternates –
Todd Phillips “Joker,” Noah Baumbach “Marriage Story”
Best Actor
I also don’t know
why people have been underestimating Rocketman’s Taron Egerton. If
Rami Malek could WIN there’s not way Taron couldn’t get
nominated. His SAG nomination and Globe win has sealed the deal as
far as I’m concerned. Robert DeNiro seemed like a lock as soon as
The Irishman hit Netflix but he hasn’t showed up in any of the
precursor awards except for the Critics Choice Awards (where they
have 7 nominees). Another possibility is Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems;
he’s very good but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Projected
nominees:
Antonio Banderas
“Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprio
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver
“Marriage Story”
Taron Egerton
“Rocketman”
Joaquin Phoenix
“Joker”
alternates –
Christian Bale “Ford v Ferrari,” Eddie Murphy “Dolemite is My
Name”
Best Actress
I’m
still in deep denial that Lupita Nyong’o
- like last year’s Toni Collette - is not quite the frontrunner
most thought she would be. However, I actually think she has a pretty
decent shot. If she doesn’t get in, she was definitely 6th.
I also think the Academy’s push for more diversity certainly helps
her cause. I could see her slot or Cynthia Erivo’s slot going to
Awkwafina
which would also be another deserving and diverse choice. Saoirse
Ronan could easily land in here as well, but I feel like Little Women
in general hasn’t made much of a big splash this award season. I’m
pretty sure Renee and Scarlett are locks however.
Projected nominees:
Cynthia Erivo
“Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson
“Marriage Story”
Lupita Nyong’o
“Us”
Charlize Theron
“Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger
“Judy”
alternates –
Awkwafina “The Farewell,” “Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Best Supporting
Actor
It feels like anything can happen in the supporting category and I
feel like there could be a fun surprise or two. The only one who
feels like a total lock is Brad Pitt and everyone else sort of feel
like placeholders. Tom Hanks is not knew to the shocking snub, see
“Saving Mr. Banks” and “Captain Phillips.” Can you believe
that Tom Hanks hasn’t been nominated since 2000’s “Cast Away”??
Having said that I’d be a little surprised to see him not show up
here, along with two other Oscar winning veterans, Al Pacino and Joe
Pesci who both haven’t been nominated since winning their Oscars in
the early 90s. The fifth slot is tricky. Could it go to another
veteran like Anthony Hopkins or a newbie? I’ve been holding out for
a long time for Willem Dafoe in “The Lighthouse” but his lack of
precursor nominations is telling. Besides is “The Lighthouse” the
type of movie that the Academy is even watching? So I’m gonna go
with Song Kang Ho in “Parasite” a film that everyone is seeing
and it feels like it has to get an acting nomination
somewhere.
Projected nominees:
Brad Pitt “Once
Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Tom Hanks “A
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Song Kang Ho
“Parasite”
Al Pacino “The
Irishman”
Joe Pesci “The
Irishman”
alternates –
Willem Dafoe “The Lighthouse,” Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Best
Supporting Actress
Like
I said, there are always surprising in these supporting categories
and I wonder if I can sense a snub coming? Jennifer Lopez has long be
a frontrunner for her charismatic work in Hustlers but I wonder if
the subject matter will work against her. She wasn’t nominated at
BAFTA which worries me. Having said that, she’s still a pretty
strong contender, as is frontrunner to win Laura Dern. Scarlett looks
to earn double bids, though she’s less likely to show up here. I
think Zhao Shuzhen and Margot Robbie are pretty likely. When it comes
to Robbie which film will she even be nominated for? Many predicted
her small part in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” would nab her a
nom but then Bombshell came along. I almost wonder if she could end
up canceling herself out. The BAFTAs nominated her TWICE but that’s
against the Academy’s rules. Florence Pugh could get in but got
left out at SAG. Also, never underestimate Academy alumni Annette
Bening (The Report) or Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell).
Projected nominees:
Laura Dern “Marriage
Story”
Scarlett Johansson
“Jojo Rabbit”
Jennifer Lopez
“Hustlers”
Margot Robbie
“Bombshell”
Zhao Shuzhen “The
Farewell”
alternate
- Florence Pugh “Little Women,” Lee
Jung Eun “Parasite
Best Adapted
Screenplay
I’m
pretty confident with 4 of these picks. The fifth slot is a race
between two films about two men having conversations: “A Beautiful
Day in the Neighborhood” and “The Two Popes.” Flip a coin
really. Besides these 6 I’d be kinda surprised to see anything else
make it in. This has definitely been a stronger year for original
screenplays.
Projected nominees:
Steve Zaillian “The
Irishman”
Taika Waititi “Jojo
Rabbit”
Todd Phillips and
Scott Silver “Joker”
Greta Gerwig “Little
Women”
Anthony McCarten
“The Two Popes”
alternate - “A
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Best Original
Screenplay
There’s usually a really witty funny comedy in this category, but I
think this year the more prestigious and serious movies will bump out
the more “fun” ones. In any other year Knives Out and Booksmart
would be shoo-ins here, but foreign language movies do surpringsly
well in the screenplay categories. Rian Johnson has been snubbed
before, hello Looper, but maybe the Academy will accept his clever
murder mystery. If it misses here on nomination morning, don’t
expect it in Best Picture.
Projected nominees:
Lulu Wang “The
Farewell”
Noah Baumbach
“Marriage Story”
Quentin Tarantino
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Pedro Almodovar
“Pain and Glory”
Bong Joon Ho and Han
Jin Won “Parasite”
alternates -
“Knives Out,” “Booksmart”
Best Animated
Feature
I’m preparing for
a major snub in this category since it happens every year. The funny
thing is I could really care less about this category this year. I
haven’t even seen any of the potential nominees. Well I saw half of
Toy Story 4. Is the Academy really going to nominate three sequels?
We shall see.
Projected
nominees:
“Frozen II”
“How to Train Your
Dragon: The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”
alternate -
“Abominable”
Best
Cinematography
I feel like The
Lighthouse has to get in here. But I’ve been racking my brain
trying to figure out who to kick out. I don’t know if “The
Irishman” is as visually dazzling as some of Martin Scrosese’s
other recent works and I’d be surprised to see many of the
potential nominees left out. Ford v Ferrari doesn’t feel like a
lock, but I think the degree of difficulty in those racing scenes
will push it through. A snub for DP legends Roger Deakins or Robert
Richardson would be criminal. I could also see Parasite pushing
another frontrunner out, but who??
projected
nominees:
Roger Deakins “1917”
Phedon Papamichael
“Ford v Ferrari”
Lawrence Sher
“Joker”
Jarin Blaschke “The
Lighthouse”
Robert Richardson
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
alternates - “The
Irishman,” “Parasite”
and the rest:
Best Costume
Design
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Little Women”
“Once Upon a Time
in Hollywood”
“Rocketman”
alternates –
“Downton Abbey,” “Joker”
Best Documentary
Feature
“American Factory”
“Apollo 11”
“For Sama”
“Honeyland”
“One Child Nation”
alternate - “The
Cave”
Best Film Editing
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Once Upon a Time
in Hollywood”
“Parasite”
alternates -
“1917,” “Marriage Story”
Best
International Film
“Atlantics”
(Senegal)
“Les Miserables”
(France)
“Pain and Glory”
(Spain)
“The Painted Bird”
(Czech Republic)
“Parasite”
(South Korea)
alternate -
“Honeyland” (“North Macedonia”)
Best Makeup and
Hairstyling
“Bombshell”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Once Upon a Time
in Hollywood”
“Rocketman”
alternates -
“Dolemite Is My Name””Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”
Best Production
Design
“1917”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Little Women”
“Once Upon a Time
in Hollywood”
alternate -
“Parsite,” “Joker”
Best Original
Score
Thomas Newman “1917”
Hildur Guðnadóttir
“Joker”
Alexandre Desplat
“Little Women”
Randy Newman
“Marriage Story”
Michael Abels “Us”
alternates –
Michael Giacchino “Jojo Rabbit,” John Williams “Star Wars The
Rise of Skywalker”
Best Original
Song
“Into the Unknown”
(Frozen 2)
“Stand Up”
(Harriet)
“Spirit” (The
Lion King)
“(I’m Gonna)
Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
“Glasgow (No Place
Like Home)” (Wild Rose)
alternates -
“Speechless” (Aladdin), A Glass of Soju (Parasiste)
Best Sound
Editing
“1917”
“Ad Astra”
“Avengers:
Endgame”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Star Wars: Rise
of Skywalker”
alternates -
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “Joker”
Best Sound Mixing
“1917”
“Ad Astra”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Rocketman”
“Star Wars: Rise
of Skywalker”
alternates -
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “Avengers: Endgame”
Best Visual Effects
“Avengers:
Endgame”
“The Irishman”
“The Lion King”
“Star Wars: The
Rise of Skywalker”
“Terminator: Dark
Fate”
alternates-
“1917,” “Alita: Battle Angel”
Best
Animated Short
“Dcera (Daughter)”
“Hair Love”
“Kitbull”
“The Physics of
Sorrow”
“Sister”
Best Documentary
Short Subject
“After Maria”
“Fire in Paradise”
“Learning to
Skateboard in a Warzone (if you’re a girl)”
“Stay Close”
“Walk Run Cha-Cha”
Best
Live Action Short
“Brotherhood”
“Little Hands”
“The Neighbors’
Window”
“Refugee”
“A Sister”
