Oscar Nomination Predictions 2021

Contrary to popular belief there were actually a lot of movies that came out in 2020. A lot of them just didn’t get released in theaters but they do still quality for Oscars. In fact, it was easier than ever to see the buzzed about potential Oscar nominees. Frontrunner Nomadland debuted on Hulu. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is on Netflix as is Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Da 5 Bloods. Promising Young Woman, Minari, and News of the World can be rented or bought on your favorite digital platform. One Night in Miami, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, and Sound of Metal are all on Amazon’s Prime Video. Judas and the Black Messiah is in theaters and available on HBO Max until March 14. The Father is in theaters now and will be available to rent on streaming platforms starting March 26. Personally, I think this year’s crop of potential nominees are fine. There are a few that I really love but overall it’s arguably one of the "weaker" years because so many films were pushed from the schedule so the films feel more obscure and random. Further proof of this can be seen in the craft categories where bigger budgeted summer films usually dominate but are nowhere to be found except for films like Tenet and Mulan. But the Oscars must go on so let’s do this!

Best Picture

Nomadland

Minari

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Promising Young Woman

Mank

One Night in Miami…

The Father

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Sound of Metal

Judas and the Black Messiah

Alternates: News of the World, Da 5 Bloods; Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

A decent slate this year of some very good films but overall I still find this year to be one of the weakest in recent memory. My personal horse is easily Promising Young Woman which blew away the competition in my humble opinion. I’m curious how many nominees there will be this year I’m gathering either 8 or 9 nominees and I’d be surprised if any of them aren’t made up of these 13 films that I’ve listed.

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

David Fincher, Mank

Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

alternates: Regina King, One Night in Miami; Florian Zeller, The Father

It’s actually possible there could be more than one woman nominated in this category for the first time in Oscar history. It’s even possible that there could be three but with this male dominated branch that feels highly unlikely. I still feel like Aaron Sorkin, known much more for being a screenwriter feels the most vulnerable here. This five is the same list as the DGA noms which rarely has perfect five for five crossover but weirder things have happened.

Best Actress

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Alternate: Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead; Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

I’d be sort of surprised if this doesn’t end up being the final five. I guess Amy Adams could surprise for the critically maligned Hillbilly Elegy but they didn’t even nominate her for Arrival so who knows

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Gary Oldman, Mank

Steven Yeun, Minari

alternates: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods; Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

Delroy Lindo has been a critical favorite all season but he’s been constantly left off the precursor awards lists leading up to the Oscars so he seems like a longshot at this point. But there is always a surprise in these lead acting categories so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him show up instead of Steven Yeun or even bumping out crotchety old white guy Gary Oldman.

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman, The Father

Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

alternates: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian; Helena Zengel, News of the World

Maria Bakalova oddly enough feels like the frontrunner and the most likely to get snubbed at the same time. (Amiright Hustlers’ Jennifer Lopez?) This category has literally been BONKERS this entire awards season with so many random snubs and surprises along the way. Jodie Foster won this category at the Globes but isn’t even nominated at BAFTA or SAG (or Critics Choice) but Regina King was able to win here and at the Globes without BAFTA or SAG noms so who the hell knows what’s gonna happen here.

Best Supporting Actor

Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami…

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

alternates: Jared Leto, The Little Things; Alan Kim, Minari

Jared Leto being nominated still feels like too much of a mainstream fluke and I think he’ll be replaced by a more critical favorite like Sound of Metal’s Paul Raci who is simply wonderful. The late Chadwick Boseman looks like he’ll be double nominated. I’m not sure any dead performer has ever been able to accomplish that. Daniel Kaluuya who gives a wonder (but lead) performance - in my opinion - feels like the locked in frontrunner here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

The Father

Nomadland

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

One Night in Miami…

Alternates: News of the World, The Mauritanian

They nominated the first Borat so why not the sequel which was even more outrageous and was a warm highlight of the horrible year that was 2020. The rest of the field will likely be more traditional stuff; your Mar Raineys and your One Night in Miamis. I’d be surprised if Nomadland doesn’t win this eventually.

Best Original Screenplay

Mank

Minari

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Alternates: Judas and the Black Messiah; Soul

More Best Picture hopefuls fill out this category. I’m pulling for the electric, witty, twisted Promising Young Woman.

And the rest:

Best Cinematography

Da 5 Bloods

Mank

News of the World

Nomadland

Tenet

Alternates: Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Costume Design

Emma

Mank

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mulan

News of the World

Alternates: The Personal History of David Copperfield; The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Editing

The Father

Mank

Nomadland

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Alternates: Promising Young Woman, Minari

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Birds of Prey

Hillbilly Elegy

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank

Pinocchio

Alternate: Emma

Best Production Design

Mank

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mulan

News of the World

Tenet

Alternates: Emma; The Midnight Sky

Best Original Song

“Turntables,” All In: The Fight for Democracy

“Husavik (My Hometown),” Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

“Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

“Io Se (Seen),” The Life Ahead

“Speak Now,” One Night in Miami…

Alternates: Hear My Voice, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Wuhan Flu, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Original Score

Mank

The Midnight Sky

News of the World

Soul

Tenet

Alternates: Minari; The Little Things

Best Sound

Mank

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Soul

Sound of Metal

Tenet

Alternates: News of the World, Greyhound

Best Visual Effects

Love and Monsters

Mank

The Midnight Sky

Mulan

Tenet

Alternates: Welcome to Chechnya, Birds of Prey

Best Animated Feature

Soul

Wolfwalkers

Over the Moon

Onward

A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Alternates: The Croods: A New Age; Bombay Rose

Best Documentary Feature

Boys State

Collective

Crip Camp

Time

Welcome to Chechnya

Alternates: All In: The Fight for Democracy; Dirk Johnson is Dead

Best International Feature

Another Round

Collective

La Llorona

Quo Vadis, Aida?

Two of Us

Alternates: Dear Comrades!; Night of the Kings

Best Animated Short

Burrow

If Anything Happens I Love You

Kapaemahu

Opera

Out

Alternates: The Snail and the Whale; Genius Loci

Best Documentary Short

A Love Song for Latasha

Colette

Hunger Ward

Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

Do Not Split

Alternates: A Concerto Is a Conversation; The Speed Cubers

Best Live Action Short

Da Yie

The Human Voice

The Letter Room

The Present

Two Distant Strangers

Alternates: Feeling Through; White Eye