BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
For the first time in some time I feel very confident predicting Best Picture. I’ve been wrong 7 time in the past 10 years as this award has become increasingly difficult to really predict correctly. That’s mostly due to a field of so many nominees and an odd voting system (it’s a preferential ballot which rewards the movie that is most generally liked, not the film that is the most loved). Best Picture is where divisive films go to die. Your Romas your Revenants, your Power of the Dogs. But as weird a film as Everything Everywhere is there is precedent for a film like this winning ie Parasite. Parasite even defeated the perceived frontrunner 1917 which was a World War I film I might add. Sorry, All Quiet on the Western Front. Everything Everywhere also has won the SAG cast award, PGA, DGA, and the WGA. No movie that has won all those has ever lost Best Picture. At this point if anything else won it would be a genuine surprise – at least to me. But if I had to say alternates? I guess All Quiet. It could win a bunch of awards. The Fabelmans and The Banshees are possible but at this point it would be a pretty big upset.
DIRECTING
Will Win: Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Directing pairs rarely get nominated and rarely win but it has happened. I think it’s most because generally most films only have one director. The Daniels won the DGA which practically cements their win here. While someone like Steven Spielberg could win I’d be pretty shocked if he pulled it off. Last year’s best director Jane Champion was the sole winner for her film which hadn't’ happened since 1967’s The Graduate. To be honest, I’m not really sure what else The Fabelmans could win.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Austin Butler. Elvis
Could Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Generally, good-looking young men don’t win this award but Austin Butler is playing an iconic musician in a well-liked biopic in a transformative role. That is Academy catnip. He won at BAFTA which helps his odds here though Brendan Fraser won at SAG. I think general actor sympathy gave him the win there. With the entire Academy voting, Butler will likely get more votes as he’s in a flashy BP nominee. Besides, did anyone really LOVE The Whale? Colin Farrell is possible but it feels like Banshees is playing third wheel to more likely candidates.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
I think this is the easiest of the acting categories to predict this year. Ke Huy Quan has pretty much won every precursor award except for BAFTA. I’d honestly be shocked if anyone else won here but the supporting categories are always ripe for an upset.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, TAR
Could Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
This one is driving me crazy. Does the Academy give a third Oscar to acting legend Cate Blanchett for another one of her equally iconic performances or does the Academy give it to first time nominee and veteran Michelle Yeoh? I’ve been predicting Michelle for a long time but I think Cate’s BAFTA win helps her pull through here. But honestly the main reason I’m predicing Cate here can only be explained in the next category...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther Wakanda Forever
The category that is causing Oscar lovers to pull their hair out! While Angela Bassett could win here, I still think the Academy’s obvious, overall love for Everything Everywhere will push another veteran and first-time nominee Jamie Lee Curtis over the finish line. The last film to win three acting Oscars was 1976’s Network so I don’t think Everything Everywhere will win Actress, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor more likely some combo of two. But with Jamie Lee’s SAG win I think she can pull off it off here. The SAG stats for this category are VERY telling. Only once since 2008 has the winner at SAG not gone on to win the Oscar. And that was when Emily Blunt won for A Quiet Place because eventual winner Regina King wasn’t nominated at SAG. Of course, the BAFTA’s stats are similarly telling. And Kerry Condon of Banshees won that, so she can’t be counted out. This race really reminds me of the year when Tilda Swinton won the Oscar and her only other major previous win was BAFTA. So there ya go. They better announce this category first because the suspense is killing me.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could Win: Puss in Boots The Last Wish
Frankly I’d be pretty surprised if Pinocchio didn’t win here.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Elvis
With Top Gun Maverick out of the running I think it comes down to a war film and an Elvis film. Flip a coin really. There is president for a Netflix movie winning this award with wins for Mank and Roma. A win for Elvis would reward the first woman ever in this category. I think that COULD happen but the photography is so impressive in All Quiet it feels inevitable.
COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin (not the one from the well in The Silence of the Lambs) never loses in this category when she’s also nominated for Production Design which is why I’m going with her in both.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Will Win: Navalny
Could Win: Fire of Life
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Could Win: Stranger at the Gate
FILM EDITING
Will Win: Top Gun Maverick
Could Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Sound and Editing have really been syncing up lately - the last 9 winners here have also won Sound or Sound Mixing and have all been BP nominees - which is why I’m going with Top Gun for both. Though Everything Everywhere is also nominated for both...
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Argentina, 1985
No real contest when a film here is also up for Best Picture. Right, Parasite? And Drive My Car?
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: The Whale
Makeup sometimes lines up with various Best Actor and Actress wins. Your Iron Ladies. Your La Vie En Roses. Your Eyes of Tammy Fays. Your Darkest Hours. Your Dallas Buyers Clubs. Etc. I’d say if The Whale wins here look out for a possible Brendan Fraser win later in the evening.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Babylon
Newcomers win in this category a lot. Your Hildur Guðnadóttirs and your Ludwig Göranssons. Though veteran Hans Zimmer ended up prevailing last year for Dune. It feels like a tossup between All Quiet an Babylon. Two wildly different music scores. Either could win really and either would be deserving. I’m giving the Best Pic nominee the edge.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Could Win: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun Maverick
RRR’s only nomination could also be it’s only win. Everyone seems to be in agreement that no matter how you feel about the movie people seem to like the song. Frankly I’m a fan of Gaga’s Top Gun song. I almost wonder if could end up winning just because some members probably don’t even know what RRR is. If they did they would of nominated it for other things right?
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Babylon
Catherine Martin (not the one from the well in The Silence of the Lambs) never loses in this category when she’s also nominated for Costume Design which is why I’m going with her in both.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Will Win: My Year of Dicks
Could Win: The Boy the Mole the Fox and the Horse
I just want the presenter to say My Year of Dicks.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Will Win: Le Pupille
Could Win: An Irish Goodbye
SOUND
Will Win: Top Gun Maverick
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Sound and Editing have really been syncing up lately - the last 9 winners here have also won Film Editing and have all been BP nominees - which is why I’m going with Top Gun for both. Though war movies tend to win here a lot…
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Avatar The Way of Water
Could Win: Top Gun Maverick
This category feels like the one guarantee of the night.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Will Win: Women Talking
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Feels like the only place to reward BP nominee Women Talking because…. Oh, right it IS the only other place to reward it. I get that All Quiet won like a million BAFTAs and stuff but Women Talking feels way more like a normal writing winner than All Quiet. But frankly it could be either.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
I think the Daniels will win here as writers/directors tend to do and BP winners usually also win for its screenplay. Though Nomadland and The Shape of Water are recent BP winners that lost to more flashy scripts. I feel like this is one of the few places the Academy could reward Banshees and it also makes sense since Martin McDonagh is obviously well liked but hasn’t won. But even PT Anderson couldn't win here last year for Licorice Pizza on his like 10th nomination, so there ya go. I think the love and sheer originality of Everything Everywhere pulls it through, the script is just too wild and fun to ignore.
