BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Anora
Could Win: Conclave
Should Have Been Nominated: A Real Pain
Months ago I would of said The Brutalist was likely the frontrunner, but after Anora’s double feet of PGA and DGA it is now officially the frontrunner. Conclave could also win after having win Best Film at BAFTA and Best Cast at SAG but it’s a British film so it obviously had a leg up on the very American Anora at the British film awards. I honestly though Anora would be too weird and divisive for the Academy but remember we’re talking about an Academy that now gives films like Parasite and Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Picture so Anora wouldn’t be too weird of a winner when you think of it. Though Conclave could just as easily take this since no one really hates it. But does it have passion? I thought it would be the perfect consensus pick ala Green Book or CODA or Spotlight. And if Conclave wins Screenplay and Editing it would make sense as a Best Picture winner. But Conclave couldn’t even beat Anora with a preferential ballot at PGA so therefore Anora to me is the obvious winner. The last film to lose Best Picture after winning both PGA and DGA was Brokeback Mountain almost twenty years ago which still remains one of the biggest upsets in Oscars history.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Could Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Should Have Been Nominated: Edward Berger, Conclave
Sean Baker won the DGA prize somewhat surprisingly considering he’s up against Brady Corbet’s visually stunning on the epic film The Brutalist. It seems as though the industry has sort of cooled off on The Brutalist. I think if this was 20 years ago, The Brutalist would have a much better shot at Director and Best Picture. But this is sort of a new and hipper Academy and Sean Baker will likely prevail. Though honestly, I wouldn’t be all THAT shocked to see Brady end up taking it.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Could Win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Should of Been Nominated: Daniel Craig, Queer
Adrien has swept most of the major precursor prizes except for SAG where he was the only nomination for The Brutalist. Timothee triumphed there which makes sense since A Complete Unknown had four SAG noms to The Brutalist’s one. I still think Adrien Brody wins at the Oscar because even those who don’t love the film agree he’s very good. I think Timothee is too young and I think voters will likely think he will have other chances to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Could Win: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (not really)
Should of Been Nominated: Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Probably the surest thing of all the four acting races. Culkin has swept the previous prizes and will most likely be adding an Oscar next to his Emmy Award.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Could Win: Mikey Madison, Anora
Should of Been Nominated: Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Now this is what we call a race! Best Actress always seems to be a nail biter in recent years and this time is no exception. I think Demi will pull it off with so much goodwill towards her. She’s got a great narrative and has been killing it with her televised winning speeches. She lost the BAFTA to Mikey Madison so she’s definitely not a lock. A lot of times when there is a surprise or upset here it is foreshadowed by BAFTA. Like when Meryl Streep won at BAFTA and went onto win the Oscar. Like when Emma Stone won at BAFTA and went on to win the Oscar. Like when Oliva Colman won at BAFTA and went on to win the Oscar. It’s also just weird to me that Mikey Madison won at the British Oscars for such an American movie, and yet Anora otherwise didn’t make much of a spash there. Anyways, I’m going with Demi. And I didn’t even mention Fernanda Torres of I’m Still Here. She triumphed quite surprisingly at the Golden Globes but hasn’t been nominated for any of the awards in between. I still don’t think enough voters have even seen her movie. But she also can’t be counted out. I’m sticking with Demi and that’s that.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Zoe Saldana
Could Win: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (not really)
Should of Been Nominated: Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Zoe is almost as likely to win as Kieran however with Emilia Perez’s divisive nature and controversies it certainly doesn’t help her. But frankly she’s been pretty much impervious to any Emilia hate and she’s easily one of the best things about the film even if she’s basically the lead. I’d really be surprised if anyone else won at this point and I’m not even all that sure who would win. I guess Isabella if she gets caught up in a Conclave sweep. Ariana would have easily won in another year but I doubt anyone is beating Zoe.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Could Win: Flow
It’s funny that Pixar’s Inside Out 2 doesn’t even seem to be in the conversation at all. The Wild Robot will likely win especially after sweeping the Annie Awards. The dialogue free, cat movie from Latvia Flow certainly has its passionate fans – it’s also nominated in the International Feature category – but I still think The Wild Robot takes this.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: The Brutalist
Could Win: Dune Part Two
The Brutalist is handsomely shot and was made for very little money and still looks super epic. I’d kinda be surprised if anything else won. The first Dune won here so it wouldn’t be shocking for it to win again but I feel like it has sort of a been there done that feeling at this point.
COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: Nosferatu
Last year Poor Things won for its wild and crazy costumes and Wicked will also win in a similar way. The gorgeous gowns and fun uniforms of Shiz U will likely prevail. I mean Galinda’s swirly pink “Popular” frock is Oscar worthy all by itself if you ask me. And I want Boq’s orange and blue sweater vest like now.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Will Win: No Other Land
Could Win: Porcelain War
Usually this category has a very obviously favorite and that doesn’t seem to be the case this year. No Other Land is an Israel-Palestine conflict doc so it’s definitely timely and I think it’ll likely prevail. Though Porcelain War is about the war in Ukraine...
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Could Win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
FILM EDITING
Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: Anora
The papal election thriller Conclave seems poised to win here versus the chaotic comedy romance Anora. Usually something bigger and louder and actiony wins here but there isn’t a film like that in this category this year unless you count Wicked. Conclave has been winning a lot of editing prizes so far (though the editing guild awards the “Eddies” aren’t being handed out this year until AFTER the Oscars for some reason). I think Anora could win here, but the editor is also director Sean Baker and I can’t imagine him actually winning an unprecedented FOUR Oscars in one night for a film that doesn’t even seem to be loved all that much. It’s not like Anora is some Oppenheimer juggernaut or something. So this really is a race to watch.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Will Win: Emilia Perez
Could Win: I’m Still Here
Emilia Perez would have been an obvious slam dunk win here ala last year’s The Zone of Interest with its leading 13 nominations but the film has been riddled with controversies since being nominated. I still think it hasn’t hurt the film too much but the late surging of I’m Still Here along with its fairly surprising Best Picture nomination could prove to be giving the divisive Emilia some serious competition. In the end I think more people will have seen Emilia Perez and besides, the Academy as a whole doesn’t care all that much that Film Twitter seems to be Emilia Perez’s biggest enemy. Frankly either could win here though I’m going with the one with 13 nominations.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: The Substance
Could Win: Nosferatu
I think this really is The Substance’s to lose. Horror films don’t always get their chance to shine at the Oscars but this feels like the obvious place to reward this film since the impressive makeup effects are a huge reason why this movie is as good – and as impressive- as it is.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Will Win: The Brutalist
Could Win: Conclave
Well I would of said Challengers would have been a shoo-in here but it wasn’t even nominated. The Brutalist’s impressive and epic sounding score should prevail here, though Conclave has an equally good and memorable score.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Will Win: “El Mal” from Emlia Perez
Could Win: I honestly have no idea?
What a stinky category this year huh? Even though we have two splashy musicals nominated for Best Picture (three if you count the Bob Dylan movie) we only have 2 fairly forgettable songs from one of the nominees. El Mal has been winning all the previous Best Song awards so I’m going with it. It’s arguably one of Emlia Perez’s most memorable scenes and even those who haven’t seen the film have probably seen clips of this sequence. I guess perennial Oscar loser Dianne Warren could win finally? But likely not. Ehh moving on.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: The Brutalist
Even though The Brutalist is literally about design and a guy who builds stuff, Wicked’s impressive sets and imaginative world will likely prevail here. And deservedly so!
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Will Win: Yuck!
Could Win: In the Shadow of the Cyprus
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Will Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Could Win: A Lien
SOUND
Will Win: Dune Part Two
Could Win: Wicked
Dune Part Two is the loudest nominee and frankly the most obvious choice. The Academy went in a more artistic and surprising route last year with the deserving Zone of Interest triumphing over the more obviously loud Oppenheimer. Musicals tend to do good in the Sound category but I think the music-based films Wicked and A Complete Unknown will likely split the music movie vote.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Dune Part Two
Could Win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
The Academy has never been all that into the Plant of the Apes series. All the previous entries were nominated but went home empty handed. Frankly, it’s tough going up against a well-liked Best Picture nominee in this category. Though I’m not quite sure how well-liked the Dune sequel actually is. Wicked has to be more well liked right? But I dunno how many people came out of that raving about it’s visual effects.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: Nickel Boys
Should of Been Nominated: Wicked
I think Conclave has this in the bag especially if it ever wants a chance to win Best Picture. I can’t imagine anything else winning actually. I guess if other BP nominee Nickel Boys gets enough passion behind it, it could maybe pull a Precious-type upset, but that film’s lack of other nominations proves it may not have enough support to pull of a surprise win.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Will Win: Anora
Could Win: A Real Pain
Should of Been Nominated: Challengers
It’s been over twenty years since a non-Best Picture nominee has won a screenplay category. I think A Real Pain has a good shot, but if Anora is gonna go all the way which I think it will, I’d be fairly surprised if it loses here. This is a very close race. Hell even The Substance could pull off a win ala Get Out and I wouldn’t be completely shocked.
