see the nominees HERE
I can’t
believe it’s that time of year again. It’s time to predict Thursday’s Academy Award
nominations. There are some really close calls this year and it’s extremely
competitive – especially the main categories. There’s not one single category
I’m completely confident in predicting. I don’t pretend to know how exactly the
6,000+ members Academy thinks, though I’ve attempted to do so anyways. Here we
go…
Best
Picture
American
Hustle
Captain
Phillips
Dallas Buyers
Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn
Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr.
Banks
12 Years a
Slave
The Wolf of
Wall Street
(Alternate: Philomena)
Like the past
two years, there could be anywhere between 5 and 10 Best Picture nominees. I’m
guessing there will be AT LEAST 9, possibly 10. There are also a handful of
other films that could easily take the 9th or 10th slot.
I’m talking about Philomena and Blue Jasmine. Heck, I wouldn’t even be entirely
shocked to see The Butler show up. If there were only 9 nominees I’d probably
take out “Inside Llewyn Davis,” a film that hasn’t had much love from the
guilds yet it seems wrong not to predict because it’s a Coen Brothers film.
Hey, even A Serious Man ended up making it in a few years back.
Best
Director
Alfonso
Cuaron – Gravity
Paul
Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen
– 12 Years a Slave
David O.
Russell – American Hustle
Martin
Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
(Alt: Alexander Payne – Nebraska)
After last
year’s shocking debacle in the Directing category I’m pretty much prepared for
anything to happen here. I’m not quite sure about Scorsese and Greengrass.
Sometimes the directors branch choose smaller scale, intimate films which makes
me wonder whether we’ll see the likes of Spike Jonze or Alexander Payne show up
instead. It wouldn’t be a big surprise. If McQueen, Cuaron, or Russell get
snubbed I’m pretty sure the apocalypse is right around the corner.
Best Actor
Bruce Dern –
Nebraska
Leonardo
DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel
Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks –
Captain Phillips
Matthew
McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
(Alt: Robert Redford – All is Lost)
I felt like
Redford was a lock months ago. But that was months ago. How many Academy
members have watched “All is Lost?” And Redford himself refuses to schmooze
with the Academy and campaign. That shouldn’t be a requirement to get a
nomination, but that’s sometimes how this stuff works. DiCaprio is the most
vulnerable and he’s in the most divisive movie here, but it also hit at just
the right time. However, DiCaprio has a long (and unfortunate) record of being
shamefully snubbed at the Oscars so I’m not all that confident here to be quite
frank. Even Christian Bale could show up in a surprise “American Hustle” sweep.
Best Actress
Amy Adams –
American Hustle
Cate
Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra
Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench –
Philomena
Emma Thompson
– Saving Mr. Banks
(Alt: Meryl Streep – August: Osage
County)
Since when
did Meryl Streep become the underdog? After having a million nominations I
guess. What we have is a six woman race with only five slots to fill, so
someone is going to be left out. I was hesitant about Amy Adams. She was left
out at SAG but got a BAFTA nod. Streep got the SAG nod but left out of BAFTA.
Let’s not forget that just last year Adams got snubbed at SAG for The Master
but the Academy came through with a bid for Supporting Actress. It’s officially
a fight between the former Doubt and Julie & Julia co-stars.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi
– Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl
– Rush
Bradley
Cooper – American Hustle
Michael
Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto –
Dallas Buyers Club
(Alt: James Gandolfini – Enough Said)
I remember
just a few months ago when Tom Hanks seemed like an expected contender here for
his role as Walt Disney in “Saving Mr. Banks.” Then he got snubbed by every
precursor award including the Critics’ Choice Awards where there are even six
nominees. So much for that. And that’s ok because it makes room for five
fresher candidates. I have a hunch the Academy could go for the late Gandolfini
as an alternate choice which is what SAG did, but I’m confident Cooper will
feel all the American Hustle love instead. Bruhl is probably the most
vulnerable, I’m still not sure how much love they’re going to give the highly
underrated “Rush.”
Best
Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer
Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita Nyongo
– 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts
– August: Osage County
June Squibb –
Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey
– The Butler
(Alt: Jennifer Garner – Dallas Buyers
Club)
It is
possible people might be overestimating Oprah Winfrey here as she doesn’t quite
feel like the lock she once was months and months ago. Even the Golden Globes,
who love big stars, snubbed Oprah in favor of Blue Jasmine’s Sally Hawkins. But
Ms. Hawkins couldn’t even get an Oscar nod for “Happy-Go-Lucky.” Also, I really
wonder how much the Actor’s Branch likes “August Osage County?” I don’t feel
completely confident in Roberts scoring here. However, if there’s going to be
any surprise I’m looking for an out-of-nowhere shock ala last year’s Jacki
Weaver. Hence I’ll assume the Academy likes “Dallas Buyers Club” more than we
think and possibly give Jennifer Garner some love instead.
Best
Adapted Screenplay
Before
Midnight
Captain
Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a
Slave
The Wolf of
Wall Street
(Alt: August: Osage County)
I don’t see
much wiggle room in this category. Sometimes the writers shock with a random
nomination, but that usually happens in the Original category.
Best
Original Screenplay
American
Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewyn
Davis
Nebraska
(Alt: Dallas Buyers Club)
I’m still
curious what the surprise nominee could be here. Could it be “Gravity” after
all? Most people (even those who love the film) don’t necessarily see the
strength in the film’s script which is a shame because the film has a strong
emotional core. Sometimes an uplifting indie will make it here which is why “Dallas
Buyers Club” has a decent shot in case the Academy feels like snubbing the
Coens or Spike Jones.
Animated
Feature
Despicable Me
2
Ernest and
Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind
Rises
(Alt: The Croods)
Some might
argue that this year wasn’t a particularly strong year for animation. I’m
inclined to agree. For once the Pixar film isn’t really the favorite to win and
Disney might have a clear shot to take home its very first victory in this
category. Yes it’s true, remember this category wasn’t created until Pixar and
Dreamworks started dominating feature animation back in 2001, a time when Walt
Disney Studios Animation was in a serious creative nosedive. I still don’t
think “The Croods” will get in there no matter how hard Dreamworks campaigns
but if a movie like “Shark Tale” could get in than anything is possible.
And the rest
of the pack:
Documentary
Feature
The Act of
Killing
Blackfish
God Loves
Uganda
Stories We
Tell
20 Feet From
Stardom
(Alt: The Square)
Foreign
Language Film
The Broken
Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The
Grandmaster (Hong Kong)
The Great
Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt
(Denmark)
Omar
(Palestine)
(Alt: The Notebook (Hungary))
Best Cinematography
Captain
Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn
Davis
Nebraska
12 Years a
Slave
(Alt: Rush)
Best Costume Design
American
Hustle
The Great
Gatsby
The Invisible
Woman
Saving Mr.
Banks
12 Years a
Slave
(Alt: Oz: The Great and Powerful)
Best Film
Editing
American
Hustle
Captain
Phillips
Gravity
12 Years a
Slave
The Wolf of
Wall Street
(Alt: Rush)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
American
Hustle
Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
(Alt: The Great Gatsby)
Best
Original Score
The Book
Thief
Gravity
Philomena
Saving Mr.
Banks
12 Years a
Slave
(Alt: Rush)
Best Original Song
“Happy,”
Despicable Me 2
“Let it Go,”
Frozen
“Young and
Beautiful,” The Great Gatsby
“I See Fire,”
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
(Alt: “The Moon Song,” Her)
Best
Production Design
American
Hustle
Gravity
The Great
Gatsby
The Hobbit:
The Desolation of Smaug
12 Years a
Slave
(Alt: Oz: The Great and Powerful)
Sound Editing
All is Lost
Captain
Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush
(Alt: Pacific Rim)
Sound Mixing
Sound Mixing
All is Lost
Captain
Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn
Davis
Rush
(Alt: 12 Years a Slave)
Visual Effects
Elysium
Gravity
The Hobbit:
The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
(Alt: World War Z)
No comments:
Post a Comment