It's
that time of year again. On
Tuesday January 23th
the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce their
nominees for the 90th
Annual Academy Awards. Since this is my version of football season, I
sort of take this stuff seriously, so without further ado I present
my 91%
fearless Oscar nomination predictions. On with the show...
Best Picture
Remember
how last year people thought “Deadpool” could make it into the
Best Picture lineup? Now it's “Wonder Woman's” turn at Oscar
hype. But it ain't happening. Maybe in a weaker year, but this is an
extremely strong year potential nominees so it'll have to settle for
its PGA nomination. The biggest question is always how many nominees.
Last year there were 9 and there will definitely be 8 or 9, maybe
even 10, this year which would be the first time 10 films have been
nominated since the Academy changed to a range of 5-10 nominees in
2011 (I know, it's confusing). The first five listed below are what I
think would be nominated if there were only five nominees like in
the old days. I'd say the first seven films listed are pretty much
sure things at this point, down the list things get fuzzy. Look for "The Shape of Water" to likely rack up the most nominations. I'm really curious, as most people are, how well "Get Out" will do. It's a great genre film that would be an odd choice for the Academy, especially since it came out nearly a year ago, but then again "The Silence of the Lambs" came out in February and we know how that went.
Here
are 10 projected nominees in likelihood of being nominated:
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water”
“Get Out”
“Dunkirk”
“The Post”
“Call Me by Your Name”
“The Florida Project”
“Darkest Hour”
“The Big Sick”
alternates
- “I, Tonya,” “Mudbound”
Best
Director
I
feel pretty confident in this list. These five reflect the DGA
nominations and it's really rare for them to line up perfectly with
Oscar. The last time that happened was in 2009 but it's not unheard
of. Having said that, sometimes the Academy likes to go for the
smaller, intimate films. That's how surprises happen like “Room”
and “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” Those two films are key
actually because they both featured small children in lead rolls and
that's exactly how something like “The Florida Project” could
surprise us all. The problem is, if Sean Baker does get in, who does
he replace? Whoever it is, it would certainly be a shocking snub.
Let's not think about that. Speaking of which, let's talk Christopher
Nolan. He was shockingly left out in this category for “Inception”
AND “The Dark Knight.” Is there any way he gets left out again?
Unfortunately I feel like it's POSSIBLE but anything can happen in
this category.
Projected
nominees:
Guillermo
del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Greta
Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Martin
McDonagh, “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Christopher
Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Alternates
– Sean Baker, “The Florida Project;” Steven Spielberg,
“The Post;” Luca Guadagnino, “Call Me by Your Name”
Best
Actor
Another
year, another likely snub for Jake Gyllenhaal. What does this guy
have to do to get another freaking nomination? And this is generally
somewhat of a rare weak year for lead actors. I feel pretty confident
with these five, especially considering how much the Academy has
snubbed Tom Hanks in the past few years. At this point I'd say if any
of these guys miss here it would be a surprise.
Projected
nominees:
Timothee
Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”)
Daniel
Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread')
James
Franco (“The Disaster Artist”)
Daniel
Kaluuya (“Get Out”)
Gary
Oldman (“Darkest Hour”)
Alternates
– Tom Hanks (“The Post”); Denzel Washington
(“Roman J. Israel Esq.”)
Best
Actress
Last
year was a particularly
strong year for lead actresses and this year may even be more so.
(Though I'm still reeling
from that Amy Adams snub).
In any other year these five ladies could WIN an Oscar for their
respective roles. Oddly
enough, Ms. Streep feels like the most vulnerable only because “The
Post” doesn't seem to be doing as well in the precursor
awards as many though it would. She was snubbed by SAG and BAFTA but
we all know how much the Actors' Branch loves Meryl. Speaking
of which, fun fact: if Meryl is nominated and if The Post is
nominated for Best Picture it would be the first time since Out of
Africa (over 30 years ago) that Meryl was nominated in a Best Picture
contender. Meryl is usually a lone cube nominee but perhaps not this
year.
Projected
nominees:
Sally
Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”)
Frances
McDormand (“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”)
Margot
Robbie (“I, Tonya”)
Saoirse
Ronan (“Lady Bird”)
Meryl
Streep (“The Post”)
alternate
– Jessica Chastain, (“Molly's Game”)
Best
Supporting Actor
The
supporting categories this year are much more difficult to predice
with both categories easily having 7 or 8 potential nominees (and
some films having several candidates). This category hasn't had
double nominees since 1991's “Bugsy.” Call Me by Your Name could
have 2 nominees, but more likely, Three Billboards could have two.
Armie Hammer had seemed like a sure thing for quite some time but it
seems like his film Call Me by Your Name has cooled off a tad in the
awards leading up to the Oscars. He didn't get a SAG nod nor a BAFTA
nod. I think part of that could be the fact that he's really the
co-lead of the film and category confusion is hurting him, which is
why I'm going with his co-star Michael Stuhlbarg who's powerful
monolgoue towards the film's ending who's the real definition of a
supporting actor. Three Billboards is more likely two carry 2
nominees in frontrunner Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson who is the
vulnerable one. Because Harrelson is such a powerful and enjoyable
presence in the film and his absence in the later part of the film is
strongly felt like Mahershala Ali was in last year's
“Moonlight.” The real
guarantee here is Willem Dafoe who's frontrunner status is being
disrupted by the charming Sam Rockwell. And I still don't buy the
Christopher Plummer thing.
Projected
nominees:
Willem
Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)
Woody
Harrelson (“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”)
Richard
Jenkins (“The Shape of Water”)
Sam
Rockwell (“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”)
Michael
Stuhlbarg (“Call Me by Your Name”)
alternate
- Armie Hammer (“Call Me by Your Name”)
Best
Supporting Actress
Octavia
Spencer has been on a roll in this category since winning her first
Oscar for “The Help” in 2012. I'm sure she'll show up again here
for “The Shape of Water.” Though I'd say there are only two real
locks here, TV veterans Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney in a battle
of the mothers. Then things get sort of foggy. I'd say Holly Hunter
is another likely nominee for her heartfelt turn in “The Big Sick”
(Seriously what's with all the moms in this freaking category?). The
final slot seems to be a battle between musician Mary J. Blige for
the Netflix film “Mudbound” but I'm gonna go with the supposed
scene stealer of “Downsizing” Hong Chau because the Academy has
given a luke warm reception to Netflix films. Idris Elba couldn't get
a nomination for “Beasts of No Nation” even though he won SAG and
the was nominated for Best Cast.
Projected
nominees:
Hong
Chau (“Downsizing”)
Holly
Hunter (“The Big Sick”)
Allison
Janney (“I, Tonya”)
Laurie
Metcalf (“Lady Bird”)
Octavia
Spencer (“The Shape of Water”)
alternate
– Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”)
Best
Adapted Screenplay
This
is a pretty weak year for Adapted Screenplays and it's mostly because
most of the Best Picture candidates from from original material.
Therefore “Call Me by Your Name” seems to be the real lock (and
potential frontrunner) as is “The Disaster Artist,” and
everything else will just be happy to be nominated.
“The Beguiled”
“Call Me by Your Name”
“The Disaster Artist”
“Molly's Game”
“Mudbound”
alternate
- “Wonder”
Best
Original Screenplay
Now
this is a real race. But unfortunately there will be some shocking
snubs since this category is packed with Best Picture hopefuls. In
any other year The Big Sick, I Tonya, and The Post would be locks for
a nomination. But there's no way Get Out, Three Billboards, and Lady
Bird are not getting nominated here. The Shape of Water isn't quite
as much of a lock, as the film isn't necessarily considered to be a
great feat of writing, but as a potential Best Picture WINNER it's
very likely to make it in. “The Big Sick” seems the most
vulnerable since it feels the most “lighthearted” of the possible
nominees. I have my eye on
this category.
Projected
nominees:
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
alternates:
“I, Tonya;” “The Post”
Best
Cinematography
It
should be noted that if “Mudbound” got nominated here it would be
the first nomination EVER in this category for a woman. I'm going out
on a limb for Ed Lachman's lensing of Todd Haynes' little-seen child
fable “Wonderstruck” which plays with various film stocks; this
branch can't get enough of that.
Projected
nominees:
“Blade
Runner 2040”
“Darkest
Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“The
Shape of Water”
“Wonderstruck”
alternates-
“Call Me by Your Name;” “Mudbound”
Best
Costume Design
“Beauty
& the Beast”
“Darkest
Hour”
“The
Greatest Showman”
“Murder
on the Orient Express”
“Phantom
Thread”
alternates
- “Victoria & Abdul;” “The Shape of Water”
Best
Film Editing
“Baby
Driver”
“Dunkirk”
“Get
Out”
“The
Shape of Water”
“Three
Billboards outisde Ebbing, Missouri”
alternate
- “Blade Runner 2049”
Best
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Darkest
Hour”
“Guardians
of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“I,
Tonya”
alternate
- “Wonder”
Best
Original Score
As
I say every year, this is one of my favorite categories and somewhat
tough to predict (as
is Best Song).
Newcomers rarely show up here which is why your Thomas Newmans and
John Williamses
show up constantly. If your music has a foreign sounding flair to it
certainly helps, which bodes well for “Victoria
& Abdul” which
is why I'm going out on a limb for Thomas Newman who was a surprise
nominee last year for the critically-maligned “Passengers.”
Newcomer Jonny Greenwood is the likely new nominee in
a category that will
probably be rounded out by veteran composers
and former winners.
Projected
nominees:
“Dunkirk”
“Phantom
Thread”
“The
Post”
“The
Shape of Water”
“Victoria
& Abdul”
alternate
- “Darkest Hour”
Best
Original Song
The
Best Song category is notoriously difficult to predict. There
are always a couple locks and then start throwing darts after that.
It must be noted that since the Music Branch changed the way they
nominee the songs (by viewing clips of the films in which the songs
appear) it's pretty rare for songs that only appear in the end
credits to show up here the way they used to in the past. Therefore
I'm going with both Sufjan Steven songs from “Call Me by Your
Name.” “This is Me” and “Remember Me” seem like solid
Academy friendly choices. Other than those who really knows?
Projected
nominees:
“Evermore”
(Beauty & the Beast)
“The
Mystery of Love” (Call Me by Your Name)
“Remember
Me” (Coco)
“This
is Me” (The Greatest Showman)
“Visions
of Gideon” (Call Me by Your Name)
alternate - “Stand Up for Something” (Marshall),
“Mighty River” (Mudbound)
Best
Production Design
“Beauty
& the Beast”
“Darkest
Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Blade
Runner 2049”
“The
Shape of Water”
alternate
- “The Greatest Showman;” “Phantom Thread”
Best
Sound Editing
“Baby
Driver”
“Blade
Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“Star
Wars The Last Jedi”
“War
for the Planet of the Apes”
alternate
- “The Shape of Water”
Best
Sound Mixing
“Baby
Driver”
“Blade
Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The
Shape of Water”
“Star
Wars The Last Jedi”
alternate
- “War for the Planet of the Apes”
Best
Visual Effects
The the potential nominees in this category have already been
narrowed down to a shortlist of ten films which technically makes
this one of the easiest categories to predict. But not so fast.
Sometimes the Visual Effects branch likes to throw some curve balls.
Nominees are determined after clips from the short-listed films are
screened for Academy members followed by Q&As. There's a lot at
play here based on what order they films screen in and how
entertaining the presentations are. Since Netflix film “Okja”
played rather well to the crowd I’m going with it over “Dunkirk”
which featured more practical effects (a good thing) but reported
received a mild reception after the presentation. Oh, and they also
presented first.
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Okja”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”
alternate:
“Dunkirk”
Best
Animated Feature Film
I
predict there will be a few headscratchers in this category as the
Animation Branch is notorious for their snubbing of more popular
fare. They prefer hand-drawn animation to computer animation, etc. If “The LEGO Movie” couldn't get in there's no reason to
think “The LEGO Batman Movie,” a film that's just as
entertaining, but much fluffier, would be any different.
Projected
nominees:
“The
Breadwinner”
“Coco”
“Ferdinand”
“Loving
Vincent”
“Mary
and the Witches Flower”
alternate
- “The LEGO Batman Movie”
Best
Documentary Feature
“City of Ghosts”
“Faces Places”
“Icarus”
“Jane”
“Last
Men in Aleppo”
Best
Foreign Language Film
“A
Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“Foxtrot”
(Israel)
“In
the Fade” (Germany)
“Loveless”
(Russia)
“The
Square” (Sweden)
Best
Animated Short
“Cradle”
“Dear
Basketball”
“In
a Heartbeat”
“Lou”
“Negative
Space”
Best Documentary Short
“116 Cameras”
“Alone”
“Edith+Eddie”
“Heroin(e)”
“Ten Meter Tower”
Best Live Action Short
“DeKalb Elementary”
“The Eleven O'Clock”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“The Silent Child”
“Watu Wote/All of Us”
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